Friday, January 04, 2013

2012 Predictions

Rather than insult you with another list of predictions for the year ahead, I find it more valuable to look back at how some of last year's prediction lists fared. A year ago, analysts were making a variety of predictions, but there was one common theme: Most of them were wrong. Dead wrong.

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From John Paulson’s call for a collapse in Europe to Morgan Stanley (MS)’s warning that U.S. stocks would decline, Wall Street got little right in its prognosis for the year just ended.

Paulson, who manages $19 billion in hedge funds, said the euro would fall apart and bet against the region’s debt. Morgan Stanley predicted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index would lose 7 percent and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) foresaw wider swings in equity prices. All of them proved wrong last year and investors would have done better listening to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, who said the real risk was being too pessimistic.

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