Thursday, February 28, 2013

deficit falling?

Although Wall Street hasn't reacted to Washington lately, we have to consider that the deficit problem isn't as big as it was just a few years ago. In 2009, the country ran a $1.41 trillion deficit. This year, the Congressional Budget Office predicts the deficit will be down to $845 billion, or 5.3% of GDP, and if Congress does nothing (which looks likely) by 2015, the deficit will be $459 billion, or 2.4% of the economy.

These numbers look large, but in the grand scheme of the world's biggest economy they're not anywhere near uncharted territory. Since 1980 the federal government has run a deficit larger than 3% in 18 years -- more than half of the time. A 3% deficit is widely considered to be sustainable, because if the deficit grows as much as or less than the economy does, then the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall. And 3% should be an attainable long-term level of economic growth -- at least, that's the theory at least.

Friday, February 22, 2013

the repatriation tax

If an American company earns profit in another country, it has to pay that country's income taxes. But if it then chooses to bring that cash back to America, it owes U.S. taxes, minus a credit for foreign taxes already paid.

So imagine Cisco earns $1 billion profit in Switzerland. It will owe Switzerland's 8.5% corporate tax. But if Cisco then brings the remaining $915 million back to the U.S. to pay dividends or expand its workforce, it will owe another 26.5% to the IRS -- the difference between Switzerland's 8.5% tax rate and America's 35% rate. It's called the repatriation tax.

Cisco's other option is to keep the money in Switzerland (or whatever country it earns overseas profit in). Not surprisingly, that's what most global corporations choose to do. As of last March, U.S. companies held about $1.2 trillion in total cash. But almost 60% of that was sitting in foreign bank accounts, according to Moody's.

Some companies hold the vast majority of their loot abroad. About 80% of Oracle's (NASDAQ: ORCL) cash is held overseas. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) holds close to 70% of its cash outside the U.S.

There are two crazy things about the repatriation tax. The first is that it doesn't raise much money for the U.S. Treasury. Using the most bearish assumptions, The Joint Tax Committee estimates that ending the repatriation tax altogether would raise deficits by about $8 billion per year -- a rounding error measured against $2.9 trillion in total revenue. A separate estimate from the Congressional Budget Office shows that ending repatriation taxes would actually raise federal tax revenue, since companies would likely bring more cash home to pay dividends, which are then taxed. Either way, repatriation taxes have a trivial impact on the federal budget.

Second, the repatriation tax is virtually unique to America. Of the G-7 group of nations, only America exercises a repatriation tax. Among the 34 OECD nations, 26 impose a "territorial" tax system, where profits are only taxed where they are earned, with no repatriation owed when earnings are brought back to a company's home country. Two of the last holdouts, Japan and the United Kingdom, switched to a territorial tax system in 2009.

With the competition based in countries that use territorial tax systems, American companies are at a disadvantage.  The easiest way for them to compete is to keep foreign profits in foreign bank accounts. The loser is the U.S. economy.

best investment sector for the next decade

I understand there's plenty of animosity toward the sector because of high branded-drug prices and a long, drawn-out, drug development process, but there are five reasons why health care represents your best investment choice over the coming decade rather than traditionally strong sectors like technology or financials.

(1)  There is one primary reason why research costs are contributing to better drugs coming down our pipeline: Big technological advancements over the past decade.

Drug research all begins in the lab. According to the U.S. National Institutes of Health, there are more than 140,000 clinical studies currently under way. This figure has ballooned since 2000 as higher quality genome-sequencing equipment and better in-lab instrumentation has allowed researchers to conduct significantly more studies for the same previous cost.

The chart above means a big boost in human genome sequencing demand for Life Technologies (NASDAQ: LIFE) . Life Tech introduced its Benchtop Ion Proton Sequencer in January last year for a price of just $149,000 and touted its ability to sequence the human genome in a single day for just $1,000. Previous versions had cost anywhere from $500,000-$750,000 and took weeks or months to sequence the human genome at a cost of $5,000 to $10,000 a pop.

As you can see, human genome sequencing costs have dropped through the floor, falling from north of $95 million in 2001 to less than $7,700 as recently as January 2012. The introduction of Life Technologies' Benchtop Ion Proton Sequencer should send these costs heading even lower.

DNA sequencing is becoming increasingly important in cancer research, as sequencing tumors can lead to personalized therapy. Scientists at the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, Mo., for instance, had fully sequenced 700 cancer patients' genomes, including healthy and cancerous cells, as of April last year, according to Science Daily. The lower cost of genome mapping and faster turnaround time will speed up the process of identifying mutations and could offer personalized cancer therapies in the not-so-distant future as opposed to a "one-size-fits-all" therapy.

Considering that health-care research budgets are only expanding, genome sequencing costs are falling, and that the sheer number of clinical studies being undertaken is rising, I can only assume that the next decade will see FDA approvals at a well-above-average rate than in the previous decade.

(2) The Congressional Budget Office released a long-term budget forecast in June 2009 that projected that the cost of Medicare -- which is social health-care coverage offered to those age 65 and older, as well as younger people with disabilities -- would practically double from 3.5% of GDP in 2009 to 6.9% of GDP by 2035, about six years after the last group of boomers retires. Even more pressing, better treatments and healthier eating habits are greatly extending the lives of retirees beyond just the age of 65.

All facets of the health care sector appear likely to benefit from this trend of longer life -- from hospital and insurers, to pharmaceutical companies and medical device makers geared toward an aging population.

One company that really stands out is Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) . If we simply extrapolate out the fact that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in this country based on PhRMA's research, then a dramatic jump in those aged 65 and older should lead to a large boost in pacemakers, stents, and valve replacements -- all markets that Medtronic operates in. Another area of solid growth that should be spurred by boomers is spinal implants, an area where Medtronic is the head honcho.

(3) Regardless of whether you support the Affordable Care Act, one thing is for certain: It will bring millions of uninsured Americans under the fold of government-sponsored Medicaid. As I noted, the baby boomers were one of the hardest-hit groups during the recession, so they may be one of the primary beneficiaries of the beginning of Obamacare in 2014.

Obamacare definitely has its share of critics, but it's expected to bring approximately 16 million newly insured Americans under the scope of government-sponsored health care. These are people who previously either avoided going to the doctor unless absolutely necessary or put holes in the pockets of hospitals because of their inability to pay their health care service costs. In addition, Obamacare mandates individuals to carry -- and businesses to provide -- health insurance or face potential tax penalties on a per-person basis.

Not surprisingly, no group of companies stands to benefit more from the streamlining of the health-care process more than hospitals. HCA Holdings (NYSE: HCA) , the nation's largest hospital operator, can, as a result of Obamacare, expect its bad-debt provision to fall dramatically. This should ultimately free up funds that can be used in other aspects of its business -- including acquisitions, funding future hospital construction, purchasing new medical equipment, and perhaps even paying shareholders a dividend.

(4) One of the biggest threats of the technology sector is that everything is slowly being commoditized. From memory to assembly line parts, many technical components can now be duplicated with ease, placing long-term downside pressure of many technology companies' margins. The same can't be said about the majority of health-care companies.

The effects against commoditization are even more readily apparent in medical device makers. Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) , manufacturer of the da Vinci surgical system, offers the only commercially profitable surgical robotic system. Period! With few competitors on the horizon and an incredibly complex technology, I'd say its market share is safe for quite a long time.

(5) Some of the most basic illnesses continue to go untreated in emerging-market countries around the globe and offer a jumping-off point for growth beyond just domestic markets.

One company that's taking the bull by the horns in expansion abroad is Merck (NYSE: MRK) . Merck's annual report, filed earlier this month, demonstrates that it now generates 57% of its total revenue abroad. Burgeoning growth markets like India and China are where Merck's investment dollars are currently headed, with opportunities seen in cholesterol and diabetes medications, which are highly contested and largely saturated (no pun intended) in the United States.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

a sign of the top?

The second defining event of the past few days is the surge of publicity surrounding the 16-year-old Hollywood actress who claims to be making a killing as a daytrader.

So daytrading is back!  Remember how the media lionized Barbra Streisand as a daytrading genius in 1999?  It was a sign of a historic top forming for stocks.

Now our media savants have gone one better:  The new daytrading queen they've anointed is only a teenager.  (Gosh, why did it take me so long to figure out how easy it is to get rich?)

Think about this angle for a moment:  Would our media gatekeepers have dared to hype a story about a teenage daytrader during the Lehman crisis in 2008?  Hardly.  We find the tale entertaining today, and even sort of plausible, because stock prices have roared higher for the past four years.  The excesses of a bull market manifest themselves near the top, not the bottom.

-- Richard Band, 2/19/13

Friday, February 15, 2013

goodbye stocks, hello funds

Someone must have sounded an all-clear signal on New Year’s Day because in January, after five years of fasting and penitence in the bond market, investors poured money into U.S. stocks.

But much of that money probably went into stock funds and exchange-traded funds, not individual stocks. Though few statistics are available, there are many indications individuals have abandoned individual stocks as their preferred form of equity investing.

Remember how people worshipped Cisco Systems (CSCO), Qualcomm (QCOM) and JDS Uniphase (JDSU) back in the 1990s?  Now they’re buying target funds, index funds, and their close cousins, ETFs, instead of individual stocks. With one big, bright red exception, which we’ll get to later, individual stock investors may be a dying breed.

Nothing brought that out more starkly than an article last week in The Wall Street Journal, which dealt with the demise of investing clubs, that former pop-culture icon. (Remember the Beardstown Ladies?)

Investment clubs flourished in the era of do-it-yourself investing, when every man and woman was his or her own stock picker. Who needed professional managers when all the data was right at your fingertips? Especially when friends and neighbors could help each other find winning stock ideas.

Well, it didn’t quite work out that way. As The Journal reported, BetterInvesting (formerly the National Association of Investors) has seen membership at investor clubs plummet from 400,000 at its peak in 1998 to only 39,000. That’s a plunge of 90% and reflects the ravages of a decade that saw two major bear markets. The problem, The Journal wrote: “Stocks aren’t fun anymore; they are scary.”

[which means there may be less dumb money now]

Wednesday, February 06, 2013

startling facts

Morgan Housel presents 100 startling facts about the economy.  Here's a few of them.

1. As of January 2013, there are 16 people left in the world who were born in the 1800s, according to the Gerontology Research Group. With dividends reinvested, U.S. stocks have increased 28,000-fold during their lifetimes.

5. According to a study by Harvard professor David Wise and two colleagues, 46.1% of Americans die with less than $10,000 in assets.

6. There are 3.8 million fewer Americans aged 30 to 44 today than there were a decade ago.

7. Related: The population of Americans aged 30 to 44 is about to start increasing for the first time since 2000.

8. Since 1928, the Dow Jones has increased more than 10% in a single day eight times, declined more than 10% in a single day four times, and gone either up or down more than 5% in a single day 136 times.

14. Including dividends, the S&P 500 gained 135% from March 2009 through January 2013, during what people remember as the "Great Recession." It gained the exact same amount from 1996 to 2000, during what people remember as the "greatest bull market in history."

15. "97% of the world's population now lives in countries where the fertility rate is falling," writes author Jonathan Last.

17. In 1980, there were 15,099 Americans aged 100 years or more. By 1990, there were 36,486, and by 2012 there were 88,510, according to the Census Bureau.

21. Despite the overall population doubling, more babies were born in the U.S. in 1956 than were born in 2009, 2010, or 2011.

22. According to The Telegraph, "Four in 10 girls born today is expected to live to 100. ... If trends continue, the majority of girls born in 2060 -- some 60 per cent -- will live to see 2160."

24. Netflix surged more than 50% on Jan. 24 from the previous day's low. $1,000 invested in short-term call options would have been worth $2 million in less than 24 hours. (Please don't try this at home.)

27. According to Bloomberg, "The 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with the lowest analyst ratings at the end of 2011 posted an average return of 23 percent [in 2012], outperforming the index by 7 percentage points."

29. Thanks in large part to cellphone cameras, "Ten percent of all of the photographs made in the entire history of photography were made last year," according to Time.

32. Fortune magazine published an article titled "10 Stocks To Last the Decade" in August, 2000. By December 2012, the portfolio had lost 74.3% of its value, according to analyst Barry Ritholtz.

40. Two news headlines published on the same day last September summed up the U.S. economy perfectly: "U.S. Median Income Lowest Since 1995, " and "Ferrari sales surge to record highs."

41. According to ConvergEx Group, "Only 58% of us are even saving for retirement in the first place. Of that group, 60% have less than $25,000 put away. ... A full 30% have less than $1,000."

43. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has closed at a new all-time high 1,024 times, or 4.8% of all trading days.

45. One in seven crimes committed in New York City now involves an Apple product being stolen, according to NYPD records cited by ABC News.

46. In the first quarter of 2012, the number of iPhones Apple sold per day surpassed the number of babies born per day worldwide (402,000 vs. 300,000), according to Mobile First.

48. According to economist Glen Weyl, "Of Harvard students graduating in early '90s and pursuing careers in finance, 1/3 were making over $1 million a year by 2005."

49. According to the Center for Economic and Policy Research, 44% of those working for minimum wage in 2010 had attended at least some college, up from 25% in 1979.

52. The number of workers aged 55 and up is about to surpass the number of workers aged 24 to 34 for the first time ever.

53. In 2011, Asia had more millionaires than North America for the first time ever, according to RBC Wealth Management.

55. The IRS estimates that illegal tax-evasion reduced government tax revenue by $450 billion in 2006 (the most recent year calculated). That's roughly equal to what the government spends annually on Medicare.

56. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The average monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home in October, assuming a 10% down payment, fell to $720 at prevailing rates, down from nearly $1,270 at the end of 2005."

59. In 2012, the Greek stock market (ATHEX Index) outperformed the Chinese stock market (Shanghai Composite) by 48 percentage points.

62. According to BetterInvesting, the number of investment clubs has declined by 90% since 1998 from 400,000 to 39,000.

68. Last year, Franklin Templeton asked 1,000 investors whether the S&P 500 went up or down in 2009 and 2010. Sixty-six percent thought it went down in 2009, while 48% said it declined in 2010. In reality, the index gained 26.5% in 2009 and 15.1% in 2010.

70. "Of the Americans who earn over $150,000, 82 percent had a bachelor's degree. Just 6.5 percent had no more than a high school diploma," writes Catherine Rampell of The New York Times.

75. According to economist Stephen Bronars, the new 39.6% federal tax bracket will only affect 0.7% of taxpayers but will hit 9.5% of aggregate personal income, as top earners earn a disproportionate share of the national income.

77. According to Gallup, 51.3% of Americans consider themselves "thriving," 45.1% say they are "struggling," and 3.6% say they're "suffering."

78. An average couple will pay $155,000 in in 401(k) fees over their careers, according to Demos, reducing an average account balance from $510,000 to $355,000.

79. Related: 84% of actively managed U.S. stock funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2011.

80. According to The Wall Street Journal, 49.1% of Americans live in a household "where at least one member received some type of government benefit in the first quarter of 2011."

83. "By 2050, workers' median age in China and Japan will be about 50, a decade higher than in America," writes Robert Samuelson.

85. The U.S. birthrate declined 8% from 2007 to 2010, according to Pew. At 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age, the 2011 U.S. birthrate was the lowest since records began in 1920.

86. According to Wired magazine, "In a 2006 survey, 30 percent of people without a high school degree said that playing the lottery was a wealth-building strategy. ... On average, households that make less than $12,400 a year spend 5 percent of their income on lotteries."

88. We are used to hearing how much faster the earnings of the top 1% grow compared with everyone else's, but we often forget that it used to be the other way around. From 1943 to 1980, the annual incomes of the bottom 90% of Americans doubled in real terms, while the average income of the top 1% grew just 23%, according to Robert Frank.

89. According to Vanguard founder John Bogle, the average equity mutual fund gained 173% from 1997 to 2011, but the average equity mutual fund investor earned only 110%, thanks to the tendency to buy high and sell low.

94. According to The Economist, "Over the past ten years, hedge-fund managers have underperformed not just the stock market, but inflation as well."

95. According to Bloomberg, "Americans have missed out on almost $200 billion of stock gains as they drained money from the market in the past four years, haunted by the financial crisis.

97. S&P 500 companies held $900 billion in cash at the end of June, according to Thomson Reuters. That was up 40% since 2008.

98. "More than 50 million Americans couldn't afford to buy food at some point in 2011," writes CNNMoney, citing U.S. Department of Agriculture data. In June 2012, 46.7 million Americans received food stamps.

99. Japan's working-age population is on track to decline from 62.6% of its population in 2012 to just 49.1% by 2050.

100. The unemployment rate for those with a bachelor's degree is just 3.7% -- less than half the nationwide average.