Saturday, October 31, 2020

Schwab's outlook headed into the election

Outlook:

With Election Day finally arriving on Tuesday (11/3) the market indicators are all over the map, and the only thing that seems certain is lots of market movement. Don your volatility hat and buckle up tight; next week looks like it’s going to be a wild ride.

Bottom Line:

I can’t remember the last time there was such extreme and stark disagreement among the indicators. Of course this is all related to Election Day next Tuesday (11/3).

With no clear consensus and such a wide range of readings, the only logical outlook for next week is Volatile; at least in the first half of the week. Following the election, it is likely that equities will make a big move higher or continue their recent decline. Therefore the secondary outlook is Breakout, because it is impossible to know which direction it may move.

Sunday, October 25, 2020

average investor's returns

What's the craziest statistic about personal finance?

One that’s mind blowing.

The average investor’s return on investments is about a 1/3 of the average return on investments. Yeah, I’ll give you a moment.

Investors today can trade on line for free. They have access to thousands of research reports. They can buy and sell instantly. They can tune into financial news 24/7.

Yet, the U.S. stock market has averaged around 9 – 10% return per year over the long haul. And during those same periods investors have averaged around 1/3 of that.

How can that possibly be?

It’s because the average investor chases performance. The stock market makes new highs and investors pour money in. Stock market crashes and investors bail out and wait until it makes new highs again.

Buying high and selling low. A fool proof formula for destroying wealth.

And many do the same thing with investments. A hot new investment screams towards the sky so they put everything into it. Then it crashes to earth incinerating.

So what’s the antidote?

Something the average investor simply isn’t wired to do. Do the opposite of what you instinctly feel and see most other investors doing.

Because if you do what everyone else is doing you’ll get what everyone else is getting.

As I’ve heard said, “Human nature is a failed investor.”

Think about it. When our ancestors were hunter gatherers they chased performance. They all congregated at the same place on the river where someone was catching fish. They all hunted in the same place where someone got game.

It’s how we’re wired. And it worked.

Except in investing. Because by the time a new investment is screaming up and popular it’s about to run out of fuel.

And by the time the stock market is bouncing off new lows and people are liquidating it’s getting ready to make a run up.

So how do you do this?

It’s tough and frankly at times gut wrenching. But accomplishing it is the key to long term wealth. And understanding it is the first step.

Though, people will think that’s crazy.

You can build wealth but only as you first understand what destroys it.

-- Doug Armey, September 29, Successful entrepreneur, investor and financial consultant

Monday, October 05, 2020

10 Golden Rules

Investing can often be broken down into a few simple rules that investors can follow to be successful. But success can be as much about what to do as it is what not to do. On top of that, our emotions throw a wrench into the whole process. While everyone knows you need to "buy low and sell high," our temperament often leads us to selling low and buying high.

So it's key to develop a set of "golden rules" to help guide you through the tough times. Anyone can make money when the market is rising. But when the market gets choppy, as it did in 2020, investors who succeed and thrive are those who have a long-term plan that works.

Here are 10 golden rules of investing to follow to make you a more successful - and hopefully wealthy - investor.

Rule No. 1 - Never lose money

Let's kick it off with some timeless advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett, who said "Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1." The Oracle of Omaha's advice stresses the importance of avoiding loss in your portfolio. When you have more money in your portfolio, you can make more money on it. So a loss hurts your future earning power.

Of course, it's easy to say not to lose money. What Buffett's rule essentially means is don't become enchanted with an investment's potential gains, but also look for its downsides. If you don't get enough upside for the risks you're taking, the investment may not be worth it. That's one reason many investors are avoiding long-term bonds now. Focus on the downside first, counsels Buffett.

Rule No. 2 - Think like an owner

"Think like an owner," says Chris Graff, co-chief investment officer at RMB Capital. "Remember that you are investing in businesses, not just stocks."

While many investors treat stocks like gambling, real businesses stand behind those stocks. Stocks are a fractional ownership interest in a business, and as the business performs well or poorly over time, the company's stock is likely to follow the direction of its profitability.

"Be aware of your motivation when investing," says Christopher Mizer, CEO of Vivaris Capital in La Jolla, California. "Are you investing or gambling? Investing involves an analysis of fundamentals, valuation, and an opinion about how the business will perform in the future."

"Make sure the management team is strong and aligned with the interests of shareholders, and that the company is in a strong financial and competitive position," says Graff.

Rule No. 3 - Stick to your process

"The best investors develop a process that is consistent and successful over many market cycles," says Sam Hendel, president of Levin Easterly Partners. "Don't deviate from the tried and true, even if there are short-term challenges that cause you to doubt yourself."

One of the best strategies for investors: a long-term buy-and-hold approach. You can buy stock funds regularly in a 401(k), for example, and then hold on for decades. But it can be easy when the market gets volatile - as it did in 2020 - to deviate from your plan because you're temporarily losing money. Don't do it.

Rule No. 4 - Buy when everyone is fearful

When the market is down, investors often sell or simply quit paying attention to it. But that's when the bargains are out in droves. It's true: the stock market is the only market where the goods go on sale and everyone is too afraid to buy. As Buffett has famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

The good news if you're a 401(k) investor is that once you set up your account you don't have to do anything else to continue buying in. This structure keeps your emotions out of the game.

Rule No. 5 - Keep your investing discipline

It's important that investors continue to save over time, in rough climates and good, even if they can put away only a little. By continuing to invest regularly, you'll get in the habit of living below your means even as you build up a nest egg of assets in your portfolio over time.

The 401(k) is an ideal vehicle for this discipline, because it takes money from your paycheck automatically without you having to decide to do so. It's also important to pick your investments skillfully - here's how to select your 401(k) investments.

Rule No. 6 - Stay diversified

Keeping your portfolio diversified is important for reducing risk. Having your portfolio in only one or two stocks is unsafe, no matter how well they've performed for you. So experts advise spreading your investments around in a diversified portfolio.

"If I had to choose one strategy to keep in mind when investing, it would be diversification," says Mindy Yu, director of investments at Stash. "Diversification can help you better weather the stock market's ups and downs."

The good news: diversification can be easy to achieve. An investment in a Standard & Poor's 500 Index fund, which holds hundreds of investments in America's top companies, provides immediate diversification for a portfolio. If you want to diversify more, you can add a bond fund or other choices such as a real estate fund that may perform differently in various economic climates.

Rule No. 7 - Avoid timing the market

Experts routinely advise clients to avoid trying to time the market, that is, trying to buy or sell at the right time, as is popularized in TV and films. Rather they routinely reference the saying "Time in the market is more important than timing the market." The idea here is that you need to stay invested to get strong returns and avoid jumping in and out of the market.

And that's what Veronica Willis, an investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute recommends: "The best and worst days are typically close together and occur when markets are at their most volatile, during a bear market or economic recession. An investor would need expert precision to be in the market one day, out of the market the next day and back in the following day."

Experts typically advise buying regularly to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging.

Rule No. 8 - Understand everything you invest in

"Don’t invest in a product you don’t understand and ensure the risks have been clearly disclosed to you before investing," says Chris Rawley, founder and CEO at Harvest Returns, a fintech marketplace for investing in agriculture.

Whatever you're investing in, you need to understand how it works. If you're buying a stock, you need to know why it makes sense to do so and when the stock is likely to profit. If you're buying a fund, you want to understand its track record and costs, among other things. If you're buying an annuity, it's vital to understand how the annuity works and what your rights are.

Rule No. 9 - Review your investing plan regularly

While it can be a good idea to set up a solid investing plan and then only tinker with it, it's advisable to review your plan regularly to see if it still fits your needs. You could do this whenever you check your accounts for tax purposes.

"Remember, though, your first financial plan won’t be your last," says Kevin Driscoll, vice president of advisory services at Navy Federal Financial Group in the Pensacola area. "You can take a look at your plan and should review it at least annually - particularly when you reach milestones like starting a family, moving, or changing jobs."

Rule No. 10 - Stay in the game, have an emergency fund

It's absolutely vital that you have an emergency fund, not only to tide you over during a tough time, but also so that you can stay invested long term.

"Keep 5 percent of your assets in cash, because challenges happen in life," says Craig Kirsner, president of retirement planning services at Stuart Estate Planning Wealth Advisors in Pompano Beach, Florida. He adds: "It makes sense to have at least six months of expenses in your savings account."

If you have to sell some of your investments during a rough spot, it's often likely to be when they are down. So with an emergency fund you're actually able to stay in the investing game longer. Money that you might need in the short term (less than three years) needs to stay in cash, ideally in an online savings account or perhaps in a CD, and shop around to get the best deal.

Bottom line

Investing well is about doing the right things as much as it is about avoiding the wrong things. And amid all of that, it's important to manage your temperament so that you're able to motivate yourself to do the right things even as they may feel risky or unsafe.

Saturday, October 03, 2020

Trump and the stock market

Trump is currently fourth (out of 14) when comparing his first term (so far) to presidents since 1932.  So far the market (SPX) has gained 58.0% since election day.

First is FDR at 137.2%.  Second is Eisenhower at 91.0%.  Third is Clinton at 70.1%.

There have been 25 terms since 1932.  Also topping Trump's 58.0% are Reagan's second term at 61.5% and Clinton's second term at 100.5%.  So Trump is currently sixth out of 25 terms.  Pretty good, but not the best.

Eyeballing the chart, I would say Clinton did that best at 70.1% and 100.5%.  And Bush (W) did the worst at -21.0% and -11.0%.  Bush was coming off the tech bubble in 2000 (Clinton's second term) and hit the financial crisis in 2008.

There were only two other negative terms: -35.0% (Roosevelt's second term) and -28.7% (Nixon's second term).

From the article,

As you can see, as of the close on Thursday (10/1) President Trump is solidly in 4th place overall versus every first-term president since 1932. At the last market top (9/2/20) he was in 4th place and has never been above 4th place when comparing him for the entire first term. He would need a gain of more than 12 percentage points over the next 32 days to move into 3rd place, and it would take a decline of more than 5 percentage points for him to fall to 5th place.

I notice that the chart uses Election Day to start counting.  I wonder how much of a difference it would make if they chose Inauguration Day as the starting point.  Especially since this year we likely won't even know the results on Electrion Day.