Sunday, August 31, 2008

Da Bear

If we exclude the two most extreme bears -- the grinder of 1973-1974 and the dot-bomb bear of 2001-2003 -- some fairly consistent patterns emerge. The total market declines from top to bottom ranged from 21.5% to 36.1%. Yet while the typical length of bear markets ranged from just over three months to more than a year and a half, they usually ended within six months after hitting that 20% decline.

Compare with where we are now: about 1.5 months past the 20% marker, almost 11 months of bear-dom so far, and the low point so far (as of this writing) was 22.4% off the high, set on July 15. All of which is right in the historical ranges -- so far, this bear isn't extraordinary by any means.

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