Thursday, May 01, 2008

Earnings Estimates

A recent eye-opening study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University looked at 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. What they found was startling.

Cusatis and Woolridge found that Wall Street analysts -- supposedly among the smartest, most well-informed prognosticators -- consistently overestimated the future earnings growth rates of the companies they cover. By a lot. I mean by a whole lot.

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