[1/19/06] According to MarketHistory.com, there have been 15 prior occurrences (dating back to May 1999, and omitting repeat occurrences within 10 trading days) where the Dow hit an intra-day high above the 11,000 level. Over the next 27 trading days, the Dow declined in 14 of the 15 cases by an average of -4.1%.
[1/13/06] Dow 11000: Does It Matter?
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[7/28/05] More than six years after the Dow topped 10,000 and then 11,000 for the first time, the index has struggled to leave that trading range behind for good. The Dow has crossed and re-crossed 10,000 at least 49 times in six years.
The Dow's struggles to make a major, long-term move beyond 11,000 aren't unusual by historical standards. Twice in the past century, the markets stagnated for prolonged periods
• After the 1929 stock market crash, the Dow did not permanently move above the pre-crash lows for 25 years.
• More recently, the Dow struggled to top and then move significantly beyond 1,000 during a 16-year period ending in 1982. The high oil prices, inflation jitters and unpopular war (Vietnam) of that era are somewhat similar to the gas price worries, inflation anxieties and another unpopular conflict (Iraq) facing the country today, although the pain may not be as severe this time, said Michael Burke, editor of Investors Intelligence, a newsletter based in New Rochelle.
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