Still Bubbling (says the Fed Model?)

Using the median p/e, Arnold Van Den Berg asserted (over a year ago) there is little upside to the market.

When the article was written, the median p/e was 19.5 compared to the highest peak ever at 20.7. So he's saying there is little upside and substantial downside.

However Arnie is using a bond rate of 6.75% in his model which would translates to a 15 p/e. If you take the 10-year tnote rate of 4%, you'd get a p/e of 25. [Today's Schwab Alerts says the 10-year bond yield is now up to 4.4%, the highest in four months. That works out to a p/e of 23.] [Here's one guy, Ed Keon, who interprets the Fed model as being bullish.]

I don't have answers for his other bearish arguments though. The market cap / GNP ratio chart looks especially scary.

In any case, even if the market is high, money can be made in individual situations. As Cramer always says, "there is always a bull market somewhere."