Monday, December 23, 2019

S&P 500 is the winner for the decade

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are poised to close out the decade with the longest bull market in history still intact.

The run, which began on March 9, 2009, has narrowly avoided falling into a bear market several times over the past 10 years but for now appears on track to continue into next year.

With less than two weeks left in the decade, the large cap S&P 500, with reinvested dividends, has easily outperformed other major asset classes and benchmark commodities, climbing over 250%. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index .BCUSA, a broad-based index that includes Treasuries, corporate bonds and other fixed-income products, rose 47 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, WTI crude oil CLcv1 lost more than 20% over the same period.

(GRAPHIC: Asset performance for 2010-2019 - here)

Buoyed in part by an accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which drove bond yields to near historic lows, the S&P 500 has been the best performing benchmark equity index over the decade out of the 10 largest global economies.

(GRAPHIC: U.S. stocks vs the world - here)

But while this has been the longest bull run on record, the Twenty-tens fell short of the showing for several prior decades for equities. The best of the past eight - dating to the 1940s - was the ‘90s, which topped 300%, followed by the ‘50s and the ‘80s, both north of 200%.

(GRAPHIC: S&P performance by decade - here)

The gains in the U.S. stock market were fueled by the technology .SPLRCT and consumer discretionary .SPLRCD sectors, with each climbing more than 300% over the decade. Energy .SPNY was the weakest group, narrowly avoiding a loss and was up only 4.3% through the Dec. 19 close.

(GRAPHIC: Sector performance for the decade - here)

While investors showed virtually no preference between growth .RAG or value .RAV stocks in the early years of the decade, growth as an investing style has handily outperformed value stocks in the last leg of the ‘10s.

(GRAPHIC: Growth vs value stocks for the decade - here)

The preference for growth names is also reflected in the performance of individual stocks over the decade, led by the gain in Netflix (NFLX.O), which notched a staggering 4100% through the Dec. 19 close.

(GRAPHIC: Top S&P 500 performers of the decade - here)

Bringing up the rear were several energy names, with Apache (APA.N) suffering the worst performance, down nearly 80% over the 10-year time frame. 

Friday, December 06, 2019

best retirement stocks

From a Kiplinger article titled 20 best retirement stocks to buy in 2020

These are stocks with relative good dividends plus a history of dividend growth

Among those that caught my eye:

Stock                           Yield  Growth streak
Flowers Food (FLO)               3.5%     17 years
Realty Income (O)                3.6%     30 years
National Retail Properties (NNN) 3.7%     30 years
Verizon (VZ)                     4.1%     13 years
Duke Energy (DUK)                4.3%     15 years
Dominion Energy (D)              4.5%     16 years
Telus (TU)                       4.7%     17 years
Exxon Mobil (XOM)                5.1%     37 years
W.P. Carey (WPC)                 5.1%     20 years
Oneok (OKE)                      5.2%     17 years
National Health Investors        5.2%     10 years
AT&T (T)                         5.4%     35 years

Monday, November 04, 2019

Howard Marks 20 important things

Part 1 of 4

1. Second Level Thinking
2. understanding market efficiency
3. value
4. the relationship between value and price
5. understanding risk

Part II of IV

6. recognizing risk
7. controlling rik
8. be attentive to cycles
9. awareness of the pendulum
10.  combating negative influences

Part III of IV

Part IV of IV

the original pdf

the book

11/4/19 - Altucher interview

[originally posted 9/7/13, updated 1/22/20]

Sunday, October 20, 2019

5 signs you're a value investor

1.  You are obsessed with Warren Buffett

Do you watch every interview on CNBC that Buffett does?

Do you read every one of Berkshire’s shareholder letters, attend the annual meetings because you’re a shareholder, or quote Buffett on social media?

An obsession with Mr. Buffett is one big sign that you’re probably a value investor yourself.

2.  You love stocks trading at 52-week lows

Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, has told investors to look for stocks trading on new 52-week lows.

If you enjoy looking at those stocks because you’re thinking you’re getting a bargain, you could be a value investor.

3.  You buy and hold your stocks

Buffett has owned some of his stocks for decades. Have you? If so, you may also be a value investor.

4.  You love “boring” companies

Buffett has gotten rich owning some of the more “boring” types of companies including industrials, railroads, energy and, famously, insurance.

5.  You never buy companies with negative earnings

If you don’t understand what all the fuss is about with Uber or Lyft, both of which don’t have positive earnings, you may be a value investor.

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

major selloff predicted

The technical analysis that correctly called the market bottom in December is now calling a top in the S&P 500, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

The "Mad Money" host said a colleague of his at RealMoney.com is warning that "we're really cruising for a bruising" beyond the 1.56% decline Tuesday by the index.

Bob Moreno, chartist at RightViewTrading.com who projected in February that the market had more room to run, warns of a possible plummet in the large-cap index.

"Now those same charts tell Moreno that we're approaching an important moment and he's predicting a major sell-off from these levels, a 10% decline in the S&P," Cramer said.

That would bring the S&P below 2,620 from its 2,893.06 Tuesday close.

Since its low following the major December sell-off, the S&P 500 has gained about 27%. The index made a series of higher highs and higher lows during that expansion, but Moreno is convinced that momentum was disrupted in September when it produced a lower high, Cramer explained perusing the weekly chart of the S&P 500.

According to FactSet, the S&P 500 posted a closing high of 3,025.86 in late July and failed to break past 3,010 in September, a potential peak. Moreno, Cramer said, determined that to be a "double top," which is a bearish technical reversal pattern.

"Moreno believes the S&P is going to test its floor of support again, only this time that floor is at 2,825," Cramer said. "But if it fails, and he thinks it will, another floor at 2,725. That's where the S&P bottomed in March and June."

"Unfortunately, he doesn't see that trading floor ... holding either," Cramer said. "If the S&P breaks down from the current consolidation pattern, we could have not a little but a lot more downside."

There are more bearish indicators in Moreno's analysis. He notes the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator had a bearish crossover, which means momentum is slowing, and the Chaikin Oscillator supply/demand indicator dropped below its center line, which means money flow is negative, Cramer said.

"He's hoping the S&P 500 can find a floor at the 2,600 level. ... That's still a long way from a retest of last December's lows, but it's pretty horrible," he said. If the floor at 2,600 fails, Moreno "did say when we talked to him that if this fails, we could revisit [the December] level."

Chartists analyze past price action in stocks to forecast future price direction.

"Do I agree? Moreno's views echo my own for vast swathes of the market, but as someone who likes individual stocks, I'm ready for chance to buy best-of-breed names at bargain basement prices," Cramer said.

***

So he's predicting a floor at 2825, another floor at 2725, and another floor at 2600.  Then I guess 2350 which is where the December low was.  Well, that narrows it down...

I'd be looking to buy at each floor because nobody really knows which floor is actually going to hold.

***

Looking at the chart, I'd be looking to buy at around 2850 which is near the August bottom and the 200-day MA.  Then I'd look to buy at around 2750 which is near the beginning of June low.  Then maybe 2650 which is around the Oct/Nov 2018 lows.  Then around 2400 as it approaches the December low.  Maybe one of those will prove to be the bottom.

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Schwab eliminates commissions

Almost forty five years ago, Chuck Schwab made investing more accessible to all Americans with the concept of low commissions to buy and sell stocks. On October 7, 2019, in conjunction with the release of Mr. Schwab’s latest book, “Invested,” Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. is removing the final barrier to making investing accessible to everyone by eliminating commissions for stocks, ETFs and options listed on U.S. or Canadian exchanges, across all mobile and web trading channels1. Clients trading options will continue to pay 65 cents per contract.

Founder and Chairman Charles Schwab said, “From day one, my passion has been to make investing easier and more affordable for everyone. Beginning October 7, every Schwab client can trade U.S. stocks, ETFs and options commission-free. Eliminating commissions ensures my ultimate vision is realized – making investing accessible to all.”

Schwab CEO and President Walt Bettinger emphasized, “This is our price. Not a promotion. No catches. Period. Price should never be a barrier to investing for anyone, whether an experienced investor or someone just starting on the investing path. We’re proud to provide clients with a full-service, modern investing experience that delivers on our no trade-offs combination of service, simplicity and superior value – backed by a satisfaction guarantee2. In support of the valued independent investment advisors we serve, the same pricing will apply to their clients when trading at Schwab.”

Beginning October 7, 2019, the company will reduce U.S. stock, ETF and options online trade commissions from $4.95 to zero. And with no minimum account size3 to open a full featured Schwab brokerage account, every investor, no matter how large or small, can benefit from the expertise and support of a firm that has been entrusted with more than $3.7 trillion in client assets. Every Schwab client using our web and mobile channels automatically qualifies for the new pricing, without opening a new account, making a new deposit or maintaining a minimum balance of any type.

***

[10/3/19] ETrade follows TD Ameritrade in announcing zero commissions.

But what about Fidelity?

[10/12/19] Fidelity cuts fees to $0

Monday, August 19, 2019

Seth Klarman on buying

[4/26/17] Position sizing is another important part of portfolio management. Different stocks can command different percentages of your investment portfolio, depending on conviction. Klarman believes one of the best strategies to build a position, as well as an understanding of the business you are investing in, is to build a new position gradually:

“The single most crucial factor in trading is developing the appropriate reaction to price fluctuations…One half of trading involves learning how to buy. In my view, investors should usually refrain from purchasing a 'full position' (the maximum dollar commitment they intend to make) in a given security all at once…Buying a partial position leaves reserves that permit investors to 'average down,' lowering their average cost per share, if prices decline…If the security you are considering is truly a good investment, not a speculation, you would certainly want to own more at lower prices. If, prior to purchase, you realize that you are unwilling to average down, then you probably should not make the purchase in the first place.”

[12/13/17 - waiting for the bottom?]

“While it is always tempting to try to time the market and wait for the bottom to be reached (as if it would be obvious when it arrived), such a strategy has proven over the years to be deeply flawed...the price recovery from a bottom can be very swift. Therefore, an investor should put money to work amidst the throes of a bear market, appreciating that things will likely get worse before they get better.”

[12/3/18] Seth Klarman's 3 Pillars of Investing

[8/19/19] “In a market downturn, momentum investors cannot find momentum, growth investors worry about a slowdown, and technical analysts don't like their charts. But the value investing discipline tells you exactly what to analyze, price versus value, and then what to do, buy at a considerable discount and sell near full value.

And, because you cannot tell what the market is going to do, a value investment discipline is important because it is the only approach that produces consistently good investment results over a complete market cycle.”

Friday, August 02, 2019

Trump vs. China

[8/2/19] BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China on Friday vowed to fight back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to slap 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports, a move that ended a month-long trade truce.

China’s new ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, said Beijing would take “necessary countermeasures” to protect its rights and bluntly described Trump’s move as “an irrational, irresponsible act.”

“China’s position is very clear that if U.S. wishes to talk, then we will talk, if they want to fight, then we will fight,” Zhang told reporters in New York, also signalling that trade tensions could hurt cooperation between the countries on dealing with North Korea.

Trump said China had to do a lot in order to turn things around in the trade talks and repeated an earlier threat to substantially increase tariffs if they failed to do so.

“We can’t just go and make an even deal with China. We have to go and make a better deal with China,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

The U.S. president stunned financial markets on Thursday by saying he plans to levy the additional duties starting Sept. 1, marking a sudden end to a truce in a year-long trade war between the world’s two biggest economies that has slowed global growth and disrupted supply chains. 

U.S. stocks extended their sell-off Friday on Trump’s tariff announcement. Yields on U.S. and German debt plumbed multi-year lows amid a rush for safe-haven assets.

Earlier on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China was holding firm to its position in the 13-month tariff brawl with the United States.

“We won’t accept any maximum pressure, intimidation or blackmail,” Hua told a news briefing in Beijing.

“On the major issues of principle we won’t give an inch,” she said, adding that China hoped the United States would “give up its illusions” and return to negotiations based on mutual respect and equality.

Retaliatory measures by China could include tariffs, a ban on the export of rare earths that are used in everything from military equipment to consumer electronics, and penalties against U.S. companies in China, according to analysts.

Trump also threatened to further raise tariffs if Chinese President Xi Jinping fails to move more quickly to strike a trade deal.

The 10% duties, which Trump announced in a series of Twitter posts after his top trade negotiators briefed him on a lack of progress in talks in Shanghai this week, would extend tariffs to nearly all Chinese goods that the United States imports.

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

rich get richer

Welcome to the longest U.S. economic expansion in history, one perhaps best characterized by the excesses of extreme wealth and an ever-widening chasm between the unfathomably rich and everyone else.

Indeed, as the expansion entered its record-setting 121st month on Monday, signs of a new Gilded Age are all over.

Big-money deals are getting bigger, from corporate mergers and acquisitions, to individuals buying luxury penthouses, sports teams, yachts and all-frills pilgrimages to the ends of the earth. And while these deals grab headlines, there is a deeper trend at work. The number of billionaires in the United States has more than doubled in the last decade, from 267 in 2008 to 607 last year, according to UBS.

“The rich have gotten richer and they’ve gotten richer faster,” said John Mathews, Head of Private Wealth Management and Ultra High Net Worth at UBS (UBSG.S) Global Wealth Management. “The drive or the desire for consumption has just gone upscale.”

But there are also signs of struggle and stagnation at lower-income levels. The wealthiest fifth of Americans hold 88% of the country’s wealth, a share that has grown since before the crisis, Federal Reserve data through 2016 shows. Meanwhile, the number of people receiving federal food stamps tops 39 million, below the peak in 2013 but still up 40% from 2008 even though the country’s population has only grown about 8%.

Anger over what some see as the unfairness of the economy has bubbled into the country’s politics, with Democratic presidential candidates promising to lower healthcare costs, guarantee jobs and tax the rich.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Facebook and Libra

Believe it or not, Facebook will be the company that brings cryptocurrency to the masses. Today the social network giant published detailed plans for a cryptocurrency called libra, backed by currencies from the most trusted central banks around the world, and accessible even without a bank account.

Considering that only a few years ago publicly traded companies wouldn’t even mention cryptocurrency in public for fear of startling investors, the fact that one of the largest public companies in the world is creating a new cryptocurrency might seem hard to believe.

But for Facebook, a company that generated $55.8 billion revenue in 2018, almost exclusively by monetizing a shared social network, the push into blockchain, a shared financial network of transactions, represents multiple possible new revenue streams. Ultimately Facebook could reap rewards from financial services it may offer via a new crypto subsidiary called Calibra as well as the income it might generate if its vast customer base parks funds in its reserves backing its new coin.

While top competitors in the cryptocurrency space like Blockchain LLC and Coinbase have fewer than 40 million total users each, Facebook has 2.7 billion monthly active users, giving its cryptocurrency a potential for adoption that competitors can only dream of. While the cumulative market cap of all cryptocurrencies is $290 billion, Facebook’s market cap is almost twice that at $539 billion.

With plans to integrate its own cryptocurrency wallet in with Facebook-owned WhatsApp and Messenger when the cryptocurrency goes live in 2020, Facebook will instantly bridge the world’s largest social network with the brave new world of cryptocurrency. All that’s left is for users to use it.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Social Security facing shortfall

A slow-moving crisis is approaching for Social Security, threatening to undermine a central pillar in the retirement of tens of millions of Americans.

Next year, for the first time since 1982, the program must start drawing down its assets in order to pay retirees all of the benefits they have been promised, according to the latest government projections.

Unless a political solution is reached, Social Security’s so-called trust funds are expected to be depleted within about 15 years. Then, something that has been unimaginable for decades would be required under current law: Benefit checks for retirees would be cut by about 20 percent across the board.

“Old people not getting the Social Security checks they have been promised? That has been unthinkable in America — and I don’t think it will really happen in the end this time, because it’s just too horrible,” said Alicia Munnell, the director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. “But action has to be taken to prevent it.”

While the issue is certain to be politically contentious, it is barely being talked about in Washington and at 2020 campaign events. The last time Social Security faced a crisis of this kind, in the early 1980s, a high-level bipartisan effort was needed to keep retirees’ checks whole. Since that episode, the program has often been called “the third rail of American politics” — an entitlement too dangerous to touch — and it’s possible that another compromise could be reached in the current era.

Benefit cuts would be devastating for about half of retired Americans, who rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income. A survey released in May by the Federal Reserve found that a quarter of working Americans had saved nothing for retirement.

Social Security has a long-known basic math problem: more money will be going out than coming in. Roughly 10,000 baby boomers are retiring each day, with insufficient numbers of younger people entering the work force to pay into the system and support them.

And life expectancy is increasing. By 2035, Social Security estimates, the number of Americans 65 or older will increase to more than 79 million, from about 49 million now. If the program has not been repaired, they will encounter a much poorer Social Security than the one seniors rely on today.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

The Buffett Yardstick

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) says it’s “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

The “Buffett Yardstick,” as longtime money manager Jesse Felder of the Felder Report calls it, plots the total value of the stock market against the overall size of the economy. What makes it so valuable, he says, is that it’s good at telling investors what to expect from equities going forward.

So what’s it telling them now?

Felder put the “Yardstick” (inverted) up against forward 10-year returns in the stock market in the chart below to create what he describes as the best representation of one of his favorite Buffett quotes: “The price you pay determines your rate of return.”

According to this measure, Felder says investors are paying such a high price for stocks that they are likely to receive basically nothing in return in the coming decade, and that includes dividends.

“At the same time that potential returns look so poor, the potential for risk may be greater than it has been in generations,” he wrote, pointing out that investors have been piling on margin debt lately to increase their exposure to an overheated market.

Saturday, June 08, 2019

Kaka'ako Land Co. (Cedric and Calvert Chun)

6/6/19 - Kakaako street dispute headed for hearing
2/13/19 - State Looks To End The Battle Over Kakaako’s Disputed Roads
1/19/19 - Kakaako road owner claims state law is full of holes
8/20/18 - Kaka'ako road dispute heads to court
11/27/17 - Tempers fray over parking fees, maintenance on private Kakaako roads
3/16/16 - Roads in Limbo: Who Owns The Streets in Kakaako?
6/14/15 - Parking war brewing in Honolulu neighborhood
3/11/12 - Brothers, businesses at odds over who owns areas off Queen Street

more

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

MacKenzie Bezos signs The Giving Pledge

5/29/19 - Bezos, whose fortune is now worth an estimated $36.6 billion, signed the Giving Pledge, which encourages the world's wealthiest people to dedicate a majority of their wealth to charitable causes.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Howard Marks - books summary

“I didn’t set out to write a manual for investing. Rather, this book is a statement of my investment philosophy. I consider it my creed, and in the course of my investing career it has served like a religion.”

Howard Marks (TradesPortfolio) wrote those words in the introduction to his 2013 book, “The Most  Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor.” It is based on his occasional memos to clients at the Trust Company of the West and then at Oaktree Capital, the company he cofounded in 1995.

The title originated with a client meeting in which Marks explained the most important thing about investment success, only to find himself trotting out a series of most important things—18 of them in total.

Chapter 1 - Second-level thinking
Chapter 2 - Market efficiency
Chapter 3 - The concepts of value
Chapter 4 - Price and Value
Chapter 5 - Understanding risk
Chapter 6 - Recognizing of risk
Chapter 7 - Controlling risk
Chapter 8 - Cycles present opportunities
Chapter 9 - Following the pendulum
Chapter 10 - Bad decisions
Chapter 11 - Catching falling knives
Chapter 12 - Looking for bargains
Chapter 13 - Patient opportunism
Chapter 14 - The hazard of forecasting
Chapter 15 - The Cycle
Chapter 16 - Luck and value investing
Chapter 17 - making money and/or avoiding losses
Chapter 18 - investing pitfalls
Chapter 19 - Second level thinking
Chapter 20 - what returns are reasonable?

Monday, March 18, 2019

how the rich get richer

from the 1940s through the mid-1980s, the richest one person [that should be one percent] got a much smaller portion of the whole:

That lasted until the late-1970s — and you saw what happened from then on. It's what economists call "The Great Divergence," or a great increase in wealth inequality.

So, what caused this?

Wealthy people began making more of their money from investments and business income

Everyone else continued to make money on salaries and wages.

But since the 1970s, we've significantly reduced how much we tax investment income

The most we've taxed investment income is about 40 percent. That was in the late-1970s. Since then, rates have been much lower. In fact, until 2013, the most investment income could be taxed was 15 percent. It's now about 25 percent.

Keep in mind that, if you're filing as a single person, your salary and wages starting at $38,000 are taxed at 25 percent — and from there the rates only go up.

Since it's the rich who made more and more money on investments, taxing investments less helped them a lot.

American tax and transfer policies are among the worst in reducing inequality, compared to other developed countries

Even though we have a relatively progressive tax system, we now have some of the lowest tax rates in decades. Low tax rates mean the US collects less revenue — and can transfer fewer resources back to taxpayers.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

taxing the rich

Everyone, it seems, has ideas about new tax strategies, some more realistic than others. The list of tax revolutionaries is long. The short list includes Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who wants a top tax rate of 70 percent on incomes above $10 million a year; Senator Elizabeth Warren, who wants a wealth tax; Senator Bernie Sanders, who wants an estate tax with a 77 percent rate for billionaires; and even Senator Marco Rubio, who recently proposed a tax on stock buybacks.

Whatever your politics, there is a bipartisan acknowledgment that the tax system is broken. Whether you believe the system should be fixed to generate more revenue or employed as a tool to limit inequality — and let’s be honest for a moment, those ideas are not always consistent — there is a justifiable sense the public doesn’t trust the tax system to be fair.

In truth, how could it when a wealthy person like Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of the president, reportedly paid almost no federal taxes for years? Or when Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs who once led President Trump’s National Economic Council, says aloud what most wealthy people already know: “Only morons pay the estate tax.

If you pay taxes, it’s hard not to feel like a patsy.

Over the past month, I’ve consulted with tax accountants, lawyers, executives, political leaders and yes, billionaires, and specific ideas have come up about plugging the gaps in the tax code, without blowing it apart.

Patch the estate tax

None of the suggestions in this column — or anywhere else — can work unless the estate tax is rid of the loopholes that allow wealthy Americans to blatantly (and legally) skirt taxes.

That’s because after someone dies, the rules allow assets to be passed on at their current — or “stepped up” — value, with no tax paid on the gains. An asset could rise in value for decades without being subject to a tax.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates simply closing this loophole would raise more than $650 billion over a decade.

Increase capital gains rates for the wealthy 

Our income tax rates are progressive, but taxes on capital gains are less so. There are only two brackets, and they top out at 20 percent.

By contrast, someone making $40,000 a year by working 40 hours a week is in the 22 percent bracket. That’s why Warren Buffett says his secretary pays a higher tax rate.

So why not increase capital gains rates on the wealthiest among us?

One chief argument for low capital gains rates is to incentivize investment. But if we embraced two additional brackets — say, a marginal 30 percent bracket for earners over $5 million and a 35 percent bracket for earners over $15 million — it is hard to see how it would fundamentally change investment plans.

Even Bill Gates agrees, telling CNN: “The big fortunes, if your goal is to go after those, you have to take the capital gains tax, which is far lower at like 20 percent, and increase that.”

End the perverse real estate loopholes

One reason there are so many real estate billionaires is the law allows the industry to perpetually defer capital gains on properties by trading one for another. In tax parlance, it is known as a 1031 exchange.

In addition, real estate industry executives can depreciate the value of their investment for tax purposes even when the actual value of the property appreciates. (This partly explains Mr. Kushner’s low tax bill.)

These are glaring loopholes that are illogical unless you are a beneficiary of them. Several real estate veterans I spoke to privately acknowledged the tax breaks are unconscionable.

Fix carried interest

This is far and away the most obvious loophole that goes to Americans’ basic sense of fairness.

For reasons that remain inexplicable — unless you count lobbying money — the private equity, 
venture capital, real estate and hedge fund industries have kept this one intact. Current tax law allows executives in those industries to have the bonuses they earn investing for clients taxed as capital gains, not ordinary income.

Even President Trump opposed the loophole. In a 2015 interview, he said hedge fund managers were “getting away with murder.”

This idea and the others would not swell the government’s coffers to overflowing, but they would help restore a sense of fairness to a system that feels so easily gamed by the wealthiest among us.

Finally, fund the Internal Revenue Service

The agency is so underfunded that the chance an individual gets audited is minuscule — one person in 161 was audited in 2017, according to the I.R.S. And individuals with more than $1 million in income, the people with the most complicated tax situations, were audited just 4.4 percent of the time. It was more than 12 percent in 2011, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reported.

The laws in place hardly matter: Those willing to take a chance can gamble that they won’t get caught. That wouldn’t be the case if the agency weren’t having its budget cut and losing personnel.

Mary Kay Foss, a C.P.A. in Walnut Creek, Calif., told the trade magazine Accounting Today what we all know, but is inexplicably never said aloud: “No business would cut the budget of the people who collect what’s owed.”

“It encourages people to cheat,” she said. “We need a well-trained, well-paid I.R.S. staff so that those of us who pay our taxes aren’t being made fools of.”

Monday, February 04, 2019

4 wealth building habits

Dr. Thomas J. Stanley thoroughly researched wealth-building behaviors and revealed the results in The Millionaire Next Door. In his 1990s survey of over 14,000 affluent American households, Stanley concluded that households can become wealthy without six- or seven-figure salaries.

Dr. Stanley passed away in a car accident in 2015, and his daughter Dr. Sarah Stanley Fallaw recently published The Next Millionaire Next Door. Dr. Fallaw confirms that many of the behaviors identified in Stanley’s research continue to play a significant role in wealth accumulation now, and behavior change is possible.

She finds that frugality, diligence, hard work and time management are more important than salary alone. Choice of spouse, career and location are also influential.

Habit No. 1: Frugality

Frugality means you spend less than you earn. Most millionaires are able to ignore the temptation to buy a bigger house, newer car, latest tech gadget and so on. They may notice what other people are buying but don’t go on a shopping spree themselves.

Habit No. 2: Discipline

Self-made millionaires are also disciplined. They choose moderation over extremes. If they buy a luxury car, it’s often a used one. You’re unlikely to find them living in the most expensive, elaborate house on the block. As investors, many millionaires don’t try to time the market. Slow and steady wins the race.

Habit No. 3: Hard Work

Another defining characteristic of many millionaires is their work ethic. Money wasn’t handed to them on a silver platter. It’s incredibly difficult to build long-term wealth yourself if you’ve relied solely on handouts from parents or other family members. The adage “from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” rings true: A sense of entitlement quickly erodes family wealth. Millionaires profiled in Dr. Fallaw’s book are willing to roll up their sleeves, launch businesses or stick it out in high-paying careers until they’re financially independent.

Habit: No. 4: Time Management

Effective allocation of time, energy and resources is another guiding trait of self-made millionaires. Even if hiring an outside financial adviser, a millionaire still monitors the family budget and ensures the investment portfolio matches the level of risk taken. He or she takes the role as household CFO seriously but may also rely on a professional with deep expertise in tax mitigation, charitable giving or college saving strategies.

Friday, February 01, 2019

wealth inequality grows

DAVOS, Switzerland — Wealth inequality around the world is “out of control” and doing particular harm to women, anti-poverty campaigner Oxfam warned Monday ahead of the annual gathering of business and political leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.

Oxfam, which has for years been trying to bring attention to the issue ahead of the World Economic Forum, said in a report that billionaire fortunes increased by 12 percent last year — the equivalent of $2.5 billion a day — while the 3.8 billion people who make up the world’s poorest half saw their wealth decline by 11 percent.

“This is not inevitable, this is unacceptable,” Winnie Byanyima, Oxfam International’s executive director said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In the report, which is based on figures from Credit Suisse’ Wealth Databook and the annual Forbes “Billionaires List,” Oxfam said the number of billionaires has almost doubled since the financial crisis a decade ago yet tax rates on the wealthy and corporations have fallen to their lowest levels in decades.

“While corporations and the super-rich enjoy low tax bills, millions of girls are denied a decent education and women are dying for lack of maternity care,” Byanyima said.

Oxfam said making taxes fairer will help address many of the world’s ills. It said getting the world’s richest 1 percent to pay just 0.5 percent extra tax on their wealth could raise more money than it would cost to educate the 262 million children out of school, and provide life-saving healthcare for 3.3 million people. It also suggested governments look again at taxes on wealth such as inheritance or property, which have been reduced or eliminated in much of the developed world and barely implemented in the developing world.

“Governments must now deliver real change by ensuring corporations and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of tax and investing this money in free healthcare and education that meets the needs of everyone — including women and girls whose needs are so often overlooked,” said Byanyima.
Byanyima, who has been a regular participant at the Davos gathering, defended the organization’s continued participation at the World Economic Forum despite mounting evidence of growing inequality.

Byanyima said “the people in Davos” have the power to be “the solution to end extreme inequality.”

“The solutions are there and that is why we come to Davos, to remind these leaders that you have made the commitment; now get on with the action. The policies are there, the solutions are proven.”