a V bottom?

technician Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch blog recently undertook a study of 10% drops in the S&P back to 1980.  (In order to capture more cases, he didn't draw the line precisely at 10%, but stayed close to that mark.)

In all, there were 25 instances of an approximately 10% decline in the index.  Of these, only 16% resulted in a V-bounce where the original low for the move was never revisited.


In the other 84% of the situations, the market returned to test its lows.  So the odds are strong, on the historical record at least, that the S&P will creep back to the area of its February 8 closing low (2581) before the market can resume its climb to new all-time highs.

-- Richard Band, 2/15/18