Tuesday, December 10, 2013

a triple top?

Here’s something really scary: The stock market may be forming a dangerous triple top of major long-term significance.

That’s because the Dow Jones industrials, in inflation-adjusted terms, is no higher today than it was at the 2000 and 2007 tops. It should give us pause to note that the market -- strong as it has been -- is only back to the level that turned the market back on two prior occasions.

That puts the market in a “make-or-break” position. On the one hand, it would be a sign of significant strength if the market were able to break through the “resistance” created by the 2000 and 2007 tops.

On the other hand, if the market were to turn down from close-to-current levels -- and thereby form a triple top -- then it would mean that the market on three occasions had tried, and failed, to break through to higher levels. According to the theory behind technical analysis, that would mean that current levels represent particularly strong resistance -- and make it that much harder for the market to break through in the future as well.

In other words, if you believe in technical analysis, the market is at a very critical juncture.

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