Here's an interesting video from Kevin Cook at Zacks.
Doing a search, it looks like Kevin is rehashing Doug Short's article.
The first chart is interesting. It identifies five secular bull markets and four secular bear markets since 1877.
1877-1906 bull (334%)
1906-1921 bear (-69%)
1921-1929 bull (396%)
1929-1932 bear (-81%)
1932-1937 bull (266%) [I call this a bull even though the line is still red on the chart]
1937-1949 bear (-54%)
1949-1968 bull (413%)
1968-1982 bear (-63%)
1982-2000 bull (666%)
2000-2009 bear (-59%)
2009-present (115%)
[from the color on the chart, apparently there was no bull market in 1932-1937 and a secular bear from 1929-1949]
The question seems to be whether we are presently still in a bear market or whether it'll be like 1937 when the market rallied 266%, then pulled back 54%.
The next chart adds a regression line. The previous bottoms were 33%, 59%, 67%, 59%, 55% below the trend line. The previous tops were 85%, 81%, 12%, 55%, 151% above.
The 2009 bottom was only 11% below trend and we are presently 77% above. The bear case is that there is more room to fall since the previous bears fell much further than 11% below trend.
But even if we're still in a secular bear (like 1929-1949), the market went 266% from the bottom, so we could have more room to run too.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
investing like Buffett
Investors for years have been searching in vain for a formula to replicate Warren Buffett’s legendary returns over the past 50 years.
The wait could be over.
A new study that claims to have uncovered this formula was published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. Its authors, all of whom have strong academic credentials, work for AQR Capital Management, a firm that manages several hedge funds and other investment offerings and has $90 billion in assets.
The study’s authors analyzed Buffett’s record since he acquired Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A -0.18% BRK.B -0.17% in 1964. Their formula, which has more than a dozen individual components, comes in two major parts.
The first is a “focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks,” defined as those that have exhibited below-average volatility and sport low ratios of price-to-book value — a measure of net worth. In addition, the researchers looked for stocks whose profits are growing at an above-average pace and that pay out a significant portion of their earnings as dividends.
The second part of the formula will raise eyebrows: It calls for investing in these stocks “on margin” — that is, borrowing money to buy more shares than could otherwise be purchased. To match Buffett’s long-term return, the researchers found, a portfolio would need to be 60% on margin — borrowing enough so that it owned $160 of “cheap, safe, quality stocks” for every $100 of portfolio value.
checklists
With U.S. stocks up 27% this year, many
investors might already be struggling to avoid getting greedy and making
careless mistakes.
By building a checklist—a standardized set of questions you must answer before you
commit to any investment decision—you can reduce the risk of making
costly errors. The best way to do that is by looking at your past
mistakes. That's true no matter how you invest, even if you don't buy
individual stocks at all.
The idea,
still surprisingly underused in the investment business, is adapted from
hospitals and the airline industry. An itemized list of procedures and
how to follow them, the surgeon
Atul Gawande
has written, can "hold the odds of doing harm low enough for the
odds of doing good to prevail."
Checklists help fix one of the biggest flaws in the way investors make decisions: inconsistency.
How
much you pay for a stock matters. But so do the quality of the
company's management, how much debt it has, who its customers and
competitors are, how easily it can raise prices, and many other
variables.
So which factors should you
emphasize the most? Many investors, including professional money
managers, just go with what feels right at the time.
As
the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist
Daniel Kahneman's
book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" puts it, "Humans are incorrigibly
inconsistent in making summary judgments of complex information."
(Disclosure: I helped Prof. Kahneman write the book but don't receive
royalties from it.)
Decades' worth of
psychological studies show that people are extremely good at figuring
out which information they need for a decision—but do a poor job of
using that evidence methodically over time. You are likely to draw
divergent conclusions from identical data on different occasions, even
when nothing fundamental has changed, because of variations in context,
alterations in your mood, shifting demands on your attention and memory,
and so forth.
No wonder
John Mihaljevic,
editor of the Manual of Ideas, a website for value investors,
says wryly that he uses checklists to combat his tendency to make "the
same type of mistake again and again."
Structuring
your decisions this way, says
Michael Shearn,
author of the book "The Investment Checklist," forces you to take
"a holistic view" of a stock or other asset. That should reduce your
odds of being flummoxed by the unexpected.
"When
we look to make an investment, the greed part of the brain is turned
on," says
Mohnish Pabrai,
managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds in Irvine, Calif., a
group of private portfolios with assets of approximately $700 million.
"A checklist is like a circuit breaker that helps prevent the brain from
being able to flip that switch."
To build his list, Mr. Pabrai studied his mistakes and those of great investors like
Warren Buffett.
Anyone "can build a customized checklist based on your own
history of your own failures," he says. Mr. Pabrai advises investors to
review their past decisions that lost money.
"Rub
your nose in your own failures," he urges. "Avoiding the mistakes
you've made in the past will take your error rate way down in the
future."
Mr. Pabrai says he believes
that the flubs made by great investors fall into five groups: valuation,
or how cheap an investment is; leverage, or risks associated with
borrowing; management and ownership; "moats," or how well-fortified
business are against competition; and personal biases.
First he does all his other research; then he works through the checklist to make sure he didn't miss anything.
Among
the questions on Mr. Pabrai's list: How good is management at
allocating capital? Is cash flow overstated because of an unsustainable
recent boom? Does the company appeal to me because of personal
preferences that might be clouding my judgment?
Guy Spier,
managing partner of Aquamarine Capital, a Zurich-based investment
firm that manages $160 million, uses his checklist to determine, among
other things, how a company makes its customers and suppliers better
off. That, he says, helps him figure out how likely the company is to be
able to fend off competitors.
Your
list, of course, should include only questions you know how to answer;
they need only be relevant to your past mistakes and to your current and
prospective investments.
Mr. Spier
emphasizes that you don't have to be a stock picker to benefit from a
checklist. "Even if all you own is mutual funds or municipal bonds, look
at the places where you've made mistakes and where you can understand
the mistakes of others," he says. "Use that to understand where you
don't want to go in your own investing world."
Ponder what you should have asked to avoid those problems to begin with. Those are the questions to add to your checklist.
—intelligentinvestor@wsj.com; twitter.com/jasonzweigwsj
[via this story] [see also]
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Buffett has a good year
Warren Buffett gained more wealth than any other U.S. billionaire, adding $37 million a day, according to one study.
Buffett's net worth -- at least on paper -- shot up by $12.7 billion to $59.1 billion in 2013, up from $46.4 billion at the start of the year, according to Wealth-X, the wealth research firm. That works out to a paper gain of $1.5 million an hour.
Buffett's net worth -- at least on paper -- shot up by $12.7 billion to $59.1 billion in 2013, up from $46.4 billion at the start of the year, according to Wealth-X, the wealth research firm. That works out to a paper gain of $1.5 million an hour.
Bill
Gates is still the richest man in America. But he was the No. 2 gainer
in dollar terms this year, with his paper wealth soaring by $11.5
billion to $72.6 billion. Casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson was third, with
an $11.4 billion gain to $35.3 billion.
Fed to taper in January
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve has decided to reduce its
stimulus for the U.S. economy because the job market has shown steady
improvement. The shift could lead to higher long-term borrowing rates
for individuals and businesses.
The Fed's decision amounts to a vote of confidence in the economy six years after the Great Recession struck. It signals the Fed's belief that the U.S. economy is finally achieving consistent gains.
The central bank said in a statement after its policy meeting ended Wednesday that it will trim its $85 billion a month in bond purchases by $10 billion starting in January. At a news conference afterward, Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed expects to make "similar moderate" reductions in its monthly bond purchases if economic improvements continue.
At the same time, the Fed strengthened its commitment to record-low short-term rates. It said it plans to hold its key short-term rate near zero "well past" the time when unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. Unemployment is now 7 percent.
The Fed has intended its bond purchases to drive down borrowing rates by increasing demand for the bonds. The idea has been to induce people and businesses to borrow, spend and accelerate economic growth. The prospect of a lower pace of purchases could mean higher rates.
Nevertheless, investors appeared pleased by the Fed's finding that the economy has steadily strengthened, by its firmer commitment to low short-term rates and by the slight amount by which it's paring its bond purchases.
The Dow Jones soared about 240 points, well over 1 percent. Bond prices rose, too, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped from 2.88 percent to 2.84 percent.
The Fed's decision amounts to a vote of confidence in the economy six years after the Great Recession struck. It signals the Fed's belief that the U.S. economy is finally achieving consistent gains.
The central bank said in a statement after its policy meeting ended Wednesday that it will trim its $85 billion a month in bond purchases by $10 billion starting in January. At a news conference afterward, Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed expects to make "similar moderate" reductions in its monthly bond purchases if economic improvements continue.
At the same time, the Fed strengthened its commitment to record-low short-term rates. It said it plans to hold its key short-term rate near zero "well past" the time when unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. Unemployment is now 7 percent.
The Fed has intended its bond purchases to drive down borrowing rates by increasing demand for the bonds. The idea has been to induce people and businesses to borrow, spend and accelerate economic growth. The prospect of a lower pace of purchases could mean higher rates.
Nevertheless, investors appeared pleased by the Fed's finding that the economy has steadily strengthened, by its firmer commitment to low short-term rates and by the slight amount by which it's paring its bond purchases.
The Dow Jones soared about 240 points, well over 1 percent. Bond prices rose, too, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped from 2.88 percent to 2.84 percent.
Saturday, December 14, 2013
10 reasons
why you'll never be rich (a slide show from Kiplingers)
Or, more positively, 10 things to avoid if you want to get rich.
and buried in there, you might want to check out the 7 Deadly Sins of Investing.
and, on a related note, 28 ways to waste your money
***
If I had to choose just one rule, it would be from Andrew Tobias' The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need: spend less than you make.
Consider the words offered to Charles Dickens by his father .. "Annual income, twenty pounds; annual expenditure, nineteen pounds; result, happiness. Annual income, twenty pounds; annual expenditure, twenty-one pounds; result, misery." That's pretty much it. Spend less than you earn. Live a little beneath your means.
[6/18/14 - the above is in the revised 2005 edition of the book, I don't see it in my second edition printed in 1986. Maybe it's in the copy I gave to Timmy.]
Googling, there are others saying the same thing.
Rule #1 (by Trent) [not to be confused with Rule #1]
Get Rich Slowly
WikiHow
Or, more positively, 10 things to avoid if you want to get rich.
and buried in there, you might want to check out the 7 Deadly Sins of Investing.
and, on a related note, 28 ways to waste your money
***
If I had to choose just one rule, it would be from Andrew Tobias' The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need: spend less than you make.
Consider the words offered to Charles Dickens by his father .. "Annual income, twenty pounds; annual expenditure, nineteen pounds; result, happiness. Annual income, twenty pounds; annual expenditure, twenty-one pounds; result, misery." That's pretty much it. Spend less than you earn. Live a little beneath your means.
[6/18/14 - the above is in the revised 2005 edition of the book, I don't see it in my second edition printed in 1986. Maybe it's in the copy I gave to Timmy.]
Googling, there are others saying the same thing.
Rule #1 (by Trent) [not to be confused with Rule #1]
Get Rich Slowly
WikiHow
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
a triple top?
Here’s something really scary: The stock market may be forming a dangerous triple top of major long-term significance.
That’s because the Dow Jones industrials, in inflation-adjusted terms, is no higher today than it was at the 2000 and 2007 tops. It should give us pause to note that the market -- strong as it has been -- is only back to the level that turned the market back on two prior occasions.
That puts the market in a “make-or-break” position. On the one hand, it would be a sign of significant strength if the market were able to break through the “resistance” created by the 2000 and 2007 tops.
On the other hand, if the market were to turn down from close-to-current levels -- and thereby form a triple top -- then it would mean that the market on three occasions had tried, and failed, to break through to higher levels. According to the theory behind technical analysis, that would mean that current levels represent particularly strong resistance -- and make it that much harder for the market to break through in the future as well.
In other words, if you believe in technical analysis, the market is at a very critical juncture.
That’s because the Dow Jones industrials, in inflation-adjusted terms, is no higher today than it was at the 2000 and 2007 tops. It should give us pause to note that the market -- strong as it has been -- is only back to the level that turned the market back on two prior occasions.
That puts the market in a “make-or-break” position. On the one hand, it would be a sign of significant strength if the market were able to break through the “resistance” created by the 2000 and 2007 tops.
On the other hand, if the market were to turn down from close-to-current levels -- and thereby form a triple top -- then it would mean that the market on three occasions had tried, and failed, to break through to higher levels. According to the theory behind technical analysis, that would mean that current levels represent particularly strong resistance -- and make it that much harder for the market to break through in the future as well.
In other words, if you believe in technical analysis, the market is at a very critical juncture.
Monday, December 09, 2013
Alphabet ETFs
Vanguard is expanding its ETF lineup with the introduction of the
AlphaBet series of ETFs, an innovation in the ever-growing ETF space.
Together these 26 portfolios, based on the initial letter of the ticker
symbol of each company in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, provide
investors with U.S. equity market beta building blocks by covering the
index from A to Z.
Because of the transparent, rules-based nature of the portfolios—constructed with equal-weighted components of all current securities in the S&P 500 whose tickers begin with a particular letter of the alphabet and rebalanced monthly—we have been able to model the historical performance of these portfolios over time to assist investors in understanding how these portfolios may perform. Some observations and strategies: Each of the 26 portfolios outperformed the overall S&P 500 Index.
Because of the transparent, rules-based nature of the portfolios—constructed with equal-weighted components of all current securities in the S&P 500 whose tickers begin with a particular letter of the alphabet and rebalanced monthly—we have been able to model the historical performance of these portfolios over time to assist investors in understanding how these portfolios may perform. Some observations and strategies: Each of the 26 portfolios outperformed the overall S&P 500 Index.
Friday, December 06, 2013
Buffett is the best
Warren Buffett isn’t just a great
investor. He’s the best investor, an economic study has found.
An index measuring returns adjusted by price fluctuations shows the billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) has done better than every long-lived U.S. stock and mutual fund.
Looking at all U.S. stocks from 1926 to 2011 that have been traded for more than 30 years, a paper published this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research calculated that Buffett’s so-called Sharpe ratio is 0.76 since 1976. That was about twice the stock market’s 0.39.
The ratio is also larger than all 196 U.S. mutual funds that have been around for 30 years. The median Sharpe ratio for them is 0.37.
The review of Buffett’s investments concluded he has been rewarded for his use of leverage, coupled with a focus on cheap, safe, quality shares.
The study said Buffett is willing to take on borrowing to finance investment, then picks stocks that have low volatility, are cheap -- with low price-to-book ratios -- and are high quality, meaning they are profitable and have high payouts.
By breaking down Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio into ownership of publicly traded stocks versus wholly owned private companies, the authors also found the tradable equities performed best. That suggested to them that Buffett’s returns are due more to stock selection than to the pressure he puts on companies he has stakes in to improve their management.
“Buffett’s performance appears not to be luck, but an expression that value and quality investing can be implemented,” said Andrea Frazzini and David Kabiller of AQR Capital Management LLC and Lasse H. Pedersen of Copenhagen Business School. “If you travel back in time and pick one stock in 1976, Berkshire would be your pick.”
abolish the minimum wage
The U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez wants to raise the minimum wage.
In fact, the vast majority of Americans -- 91 percent of Democrats, but also 76 percent of Independents and even 58 percent of Republicans -- are in favor of raising the minimum wage.
This is an understandable position. After all, the gap between richest and poorest has grown very wide in recent years. But in my view, minimum wage laws are not good laws at all. That’s not out of lack of compassion for low-wage earners, or because I like inequality. That is because I think that there is a better way to achieve a decent standard of living for the poorest in society.
The minimum wage is a factor in creating unemployment. Despite what's often said to the contrary, it's true: Countries with no minimum wage tend to have much lower unemployment. Right now, America is suffering a serious deficit of jobs, with over three jobseekers for every available job. We need all the jobs we can get.
So how does the minimum wage create unemployment? Minimum wage laws are a price control. They dictate the minimum level that a company can pay a worker. If the minimum wage is $10, and a company wants to take on a new employee that they determine will be worth $8 an hour, they have a choice -- either pay $10 an hour, or not hire the employee. Sometimes, the company will accept a hit to their profit margin, and pay the employee $10 an hour.
Sometimes they will just not hire a new employee at all. Or, increasingly, sometimes they will go overseas and hire an employee elsewhere -- like China -- where wages are far lower. This is a particularly cruel scenario because it discriminates most against the poorest and youngest workers in society.
Empirically, the minimum wage has failed to reach its goal of ensuring a fair wage for low wage workers. Worker productivity in America has risen and risen, yet the minimum wage has not.
I propose abolishing the minimum wage, and replacing it with a basic income policy, a version of which was first advocated in America by Thomas Paine. Individuals would be able to work for whatever wage they can secure, meaning that low-skilled individuals -- especially the young, who currently face a particularly high rate of employment -- would have an easier time finding work. And the level of basic income could be tied to the level of productivity, to reduce inequality.
There are two kinds of basic income policy. The first is a negative income tax -- if an individual’s income level falls beneath a certain threshold (say, $1,500 a month) the government makes up the difference. Funds for this could be accessed by consolidating existing welfare programs like state-run pension schemes and unemployment benefits, and by closing tax loopholes and raising taxes on corporate profits and high-income earners. Germany has enacted a similar policy -- called the"Kurzabeit" -- and it's been credited with shielding the German labor force from the worst of the recession and keeping their unemployment rate low since.
The second is a universal income policy, where everyone receives a payment irrespective of their income. This would obviously require more funds -- meaning higher taxes -- but in a future where corporations are making larger and larger profits while requiring fewer and fewer workers due to automation, such policies may become increasingly feasible. There are already very serious proposals to initiate such a scheme in Switzerland.
*** [12/18/13 Cramer on the minimum wage]
When I first broke in at Goldman Sachs (GS +2.55%) in the early 1980s, I was in charge of tabulating turnover in what was then known as the Securities Sales Department. It was my job to keep track of who stayed and who went, and to be sure I knew the details of each departure. I was told that, historically, Goldman Sachs tried hard not to lose anyone it wanted to keep, even as it was willing to see the others depart -- and, for the time when I did the tallying, the division's record was perfect on that score.
When I was first assigned the project, I had no idea why it was so important to keep track of how few people actually left the firm, other than for boasting rights vs. the competition, which always seemed to be losing people left and right.
But once I was in the fold, I realized the reason Goldman closely observed this number had to do with the tremendous cost of training people, and how departures -- any departures, of good people -- meant a total loss on an important human-capital investment.
In the division in which I worked, Goldman Sachs aspired for zero turnover because the firm spent, on average, six months teaching associates how to do their job -- and, during that period, these trainees were dead-weight losses to the firm. Trainees were sunk costs; you couldn't afford to lose the good ones. It could really hurt your firm's P&L, or profit and loss statement.
Few issues could be more bedeviling to profitability than turnover, and Goldman Sachs did everything it could to discourage it, including paying people more, teaching people better and offering them more benefits than you could get elsewhere.
It worked. The firm was by far the most lucrative investment house on Wall Street then, and to a large extent it still is now, perhaps because it maintains an excellence in training.
Now fast-forward to Tuesday's interview with John Mackey and Walter Robb, co-CEOs of Whole Foods (WFM +0.44%), at the opening of their Brooklyn store.
Both execs spoke intently and intensely about how turnover is the bane of their existence because it hurts all stakeholders, the remaining associates and managers left behind, the customers and the shareholders. In their opinion, paying people much more than the minimum wage, while offering them some of the best perks and benefits in the retail world, has led to a remarkable cost advantage -- not disadvantage -- vs. many retailers, where the goal seems to be to squeeze as much out of their workers as possible. Mackey and Robb know there's a big cost to the firm when people leave. They know that turnover is a killer to the bottom line.
In fact, the vast majority of Americans -- 91 percent of Democrats, but also 76 percent of Independents and even 58 percent of Republicans -- are in favor of raising the minimum wage.
This is an understandable position. After all, the gap between richest and poorest has grown very wide in recent years. But in my view, minimum wage laws are not good laws at all. That’s not out of lack of compassion for low-wage earners, or because I like inequality. That is because I think that there is a better way to achieve a decent standard of living for the poorest in society.
The minimum wage is a factor in creating unemployment. Despite what's often said to the contrary, it's true: Countries with no minimum wage tend to have much lower unemployment. Right now, America is suffering a serious deficit of jobs, with over three jobseekers for every available job. We need all the jobs we can get.
So how does the minimum wage create unemployment? Minimum wage laws are a price control. They dictate the minimum level that a company can pay a worker. If the minimum wage is $10, and a company wants to take on a new employee that they determine will be worth $8 an hour, they have a choice -- either pay $10 an hour, or not hire the employee. Sometimes, the company will accept a hit to their profit margin, and pay the employee $10 an hour.
Sometimes they will just not hire a new employee at all. Or, increasingly, sometimes they will go overseas and hire an employee elsewhere -- like China -- where wages are far lower. This is a particularly cruel scenario because it discriminates most against the poorest and youngest workers in society.
Empirically, the minimum wage has failed to reach its goal of ensuring a fair wage for low wage workers. Worker productivity in America has risen and risen, yet the minimum wage has not.
I propose abolishing the minimum wage, and replacing it with a basic income policy, a version of which was first advocated in America by Thomas Paine. Individuals would be able to work for whatever wage they can secure, meaning that low-skilled individuals -- especially the young, who currently face a particularly high rate of employment -- would have an easier time finding work. And the level of basic income could be tied to the level of productivity, to reduce inequality.
There are two kinds of basic income policy. The first is a negative income tax -- if an individual’s income level falls beneath a certain threshold (say, $1,500 a month) the government makes up the difference. Funds for this could be accessed by consolidating existing welfare programs like state-run pension schemes and unemployment benefits, and by closing tax loopholes and raising taxes on corporate profits and high-income earners. Germany has enacted a similar policy -- called the"Kurzabeit" -- and it's been credited with shielding the German labor force from the worst of the recession and keeping their unemployment rate low since.
The second is a universal income policy, where everyone receives a payment irrespective of their income. This would obviously require more funds -- meaning higher taxes -- but in a future where corporations are making larger and larger profits while requiring fewer and fewer workers due to automation, such policies may become increasingly feasible. There are already very serious proposals to initiate such a scheme in Switzerland.
*** [12/18/13 Cramer on the minimum wage]
When I first broke in at Goldman Sachs (GS +2.55%) in the early 1980s, I was in charge of tabulating turnover in what was then known as the Securities Sales Department. It was my job to keep track of who stayed and who went, and to be sure I knew the details of each departure. I was told that, historically, Goldman Sachs tried hard not to lose anyone it wanted to keep, even as it was willing to see the others depart -- and, for the time when I did the tallying, the division's record was perfect on that score.
When I was first assigned the project, I had no idea why it was so important to keep track of how few people actually left the firm, other than for boasting rights vs. the competition, which always seemed to be losing people left and right.
But once I was in the fold, I realized the reason Goldman closely observed this number had to do with the tremendous cost of training people, and how departures -- any departures, of good people -- meant a total loss on an important human-capital investment.
In the division in which I worked, Goldman Sachs aspired for zero turnover because the firm spent, on average, six months teaching associates how to do their job -- and, during that period, these trainees were dead-weight losses to the firm. Trainees were sunk costs; you couldn't afford to lose the good ones. It could really hurt your firm's P&L, or profit and loss statement.
Few issues could be more bedeviling to profitability than turnover, and Goldman Sachs did everything it could to discourage it, including paying people more, teaching people better and offering them more benefits than you could get elsewhere.
It worked. The firm was by far the most lucrative investment house on Wall Street then, and to a large extent it still is now, perhaps because it maintains an excellence in training.
Now fast-forward to Tuesday's interview with John Mackey and Walter Robb, co-CEOs of Whole Foods (WFM +0.44%), at the opening of their Brooklyn store.
Both execs spoke intently and intensely about how turnover is the bane of their existence because it hurts all stakeholders, the remaining associates and managers left behind, the customers and the shareholders. In their opinion, paying people much more than the minimum wage, while offering them some of the best perks and benefits in the retail world, has led to a remarkable cost advantage -- not disadvantage -- vs. many retailers, where the goal seems to be to squeeze as much out of their workers as possible. Mackey and Robb know there's a big cost to the firm when people leave. They know that turnover is a killer to the bottom line.
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
Is 15% growth sustainable?
Beautifully summarized by the following “test” from Warren Buffet.
“Here’s a test: Examine the record of, say, the 200 highest earning companies from 1970 or 1980 and tabulate how many have increased per-share earnings by 15% annually since those dates. You will find that only a handful have. I would wager you a very significant sum that fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual growth in earnings-per-share over the next 20 years.
***
I used the year 1990 Fortune 500 and the year 2013 Fortune 500 for my criteria. (Yes, I used 23 years instead of 20 but don't think much difference is made)
I manually sorted through the list for companies that were both in the top 200 in 1990 as well as the top 86 in 2013. I found 28 that had over 13% revenue growth for the last twenty-three years or 14% of the 1990 Fortune 200.
How many of the 28 companies had over 15% annual E.P.S growth for the last twenty years? Buffett’s wager was that fewer than 10 had done so. I used net income as a proxy for E.P.S.
[Among the companies were]
Intel (INTC) was another company with over 15% growth for the last 23 years, growing from 391 Million net income in 1990 to 11 Billion in 2013. Intel managed a 15.614% CAGR for the last 23 years.
Apple (AAPL) was one of four in the 20%+ club, growing from 454 Million 1990 net income to a phenomenal 41.733 Billion in 2013 or a 21.72% CAGR.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) is really no surprise here considering the CEO and team who are running the place. Berkshire had 1990 net income of 447.5 Million and 2013 net income of 14.824 Billion or a 23-year CAGR of 16.44%.
Looks like Buffett’s bet would have paid off with only 7 companies from the 1990 Fortune 500 growing both revenue at 13%+ and net income at 15%+.
***
So to get 15% or higher growth, the implicatons is that one must either invest in smaller companies, invest for a shorter term (than 20 years), or invest in undervalued stocks.
“Here’s a test: Examine the record of, say, the 200 highest earning companies from 1970 or 1980 and tabulate how many have increased per-share earnings by 15% annually since those dates. You will find that only a handful have. I would wager you a very significant sum that fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual growth in earnings-per-share over the next 20 years.
***
I used the year 1990 Fortune 500 and the year 2013 Fortune 500 for my criteria. (Yes, I used 23 years instead of 20 but don't think much difference is made)
I manually sorted through the list for companies that were both in the top 200 in 1990 as well as the top 86 in 2013. I found 28 that had over 13% revenue growth for the last twenty-three years or 14% of the 1990 Fortune 200.
How many of the 28 companies had over 15% annual E.P.S growth for the last twenty years? Buffett’s wager was that fewer than 10 had done so. I used net income as a proxy for E.P.S.
[Among the companies were]
Intel (INTC) was another company with over 15% growth for the last 23 years, growing from 391 Million net income in 1990 to 11 Billion in 2013. Intel managed a 15.614% CAGR for the last 23 years.
Apple (AAPL) was one of four in the 20%+ club, growing from 454 Million 1990 net income to a phenomenal 41.733 Billion in 2013 or a 21.72% CAGR.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) is really no surprise here considering the CEO and team who are running the place. Berkshire had 1990 net income of 447.5 Million and 2013 net income of 14.824 Billion or a 23-year CAGR of 16.44%.
Looks like Buffett’s bet would have paid off with only 7 companies from the 1990 Fortune 500 growing both revenue at 13%+ and net income at 15%+.
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So to get 15% or higher growth, the implicatons is that one must either invest in smaller companies, invest for a shorter term (than 20 years), or invest in undervalued stocks.