Monday, August 08, 2011

it could be worse

Market seems volatile lately? Well, less than 3 years ago, it was way more volatile.

Looking at wikipedia, four of the top five worst Dow point losses were in the latter part of 2008, and 12 of the top 20:
09/15/08  -504.48  10,917.51  -4.42%
09/17/08 -449.36 10,609.66 -4.06%
09/18/08 +410.03 11,019.69 +3.86%
09/29/08 -777.68 10,365.45 -6.98%
09/30/08 +485.21 10,850.66 +4.68%
10/07/08 -508.39 9,447.41 -5.11%
10/09/08 -678.91 8,579,19 -7.33%
10/13/08 +936.42 9,387.61 +11.08%
10/15/08 -733.08 8,577.91 -7.87%
10/16/08 +401.35 8,979.26 +4.68%
10/20/08 +413.21 9,265.43 +4.67%
10/22/08 -514.45 8,519.21 -5.69%
10/28/08 +889.35 9,065.12 +10.88%
11/05/08 -486.01 9,139.27 -5.05%
11/06/08 -443.48 8,695.79 -4.85%
11/13/08 +552.59 8,835.25 +6.67%
11/19/08 -427.47 7,997.28 -5.07%
11/20/08 -444.99 7,552.29 -5.56%
11/21/08 +494.13 8,046.42 +6.54%
11/24/08 +396.97 8,443.39 +4.93%
12/01/08 -679.95 8,149.09 -7.70%
And, actually, 9 of the top 20 Dow gains also occurred in that period. So I'll insert those as well.

Looking at the recent history of the Dow, it reached an all-time closing high of 14,164.53 on 10/09/07. On 10/9/08, it fell 678.91 to 8579.19 a loss of 5584.34 from a year previous. On 10/25/08, it fell 312.3 to 8,378,95 a loss of 5785.58 or 41% since 10/9/07. On 11/12/08, it fell 411.30 to 8,282.66. On 11/19/08, it fell 427.47 to 7,997.28, lowest close since 3/14/03. The next day, it fell 444.99 to close at 7,552.59 the lowest close since 6/23/97. The next day, it rose 494.13 points. Finally the bottom was reached on 3/9/09 which the Dow fell 79.89 to 6,547.05 which was a loss of 53.78% from the high of 10/9/07.

So, the recent 2000 drop from about 12,800 at the beginning of May to 10,800 today really pales in comparison. Compared to the 21 late-2008 days on the list, there are only 2 days from 2011 (so far).

***

Hmm. Since writing the above, there have been four consecutive 400 point Dow moves. And 5 out of the last 6 days.
8/04/11  -512.76  11,383.68
8/08/11 -634.76 10,809.85
8/09/11 +429.92 11,239.77
8/10/11 -519.83 10,719.94
8/11/11 +423.37 11,143.31

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