Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Doug Kass calls the bottom for the year

New York City is in the midst of a serious heat wave, but on Wall Street the stock market is on a major cold streak. Stocks are down 9 of the past 11 sessions. Even Tuesday's higher close was still well off the highs of the day.

Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, famous for calling the market bottom in March 2009, isn't worried. In fact, he's bullish. "I think we've seen the lows of the year," he tells Tech Ticker guest host Jon Najarian of "The market's are traveling on a path of fear and share prices have significantly disconnected from fundamentals," he says.

Kass predicts stocks will rise 10%-12% by year's end on the back of strong earnings and a better-than-expected economic recovery. He says positive trends in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing index and improved labor market conditions point to "moderate domestic economic expansion, not a double dip."

Trading at around 11 times earnings, stocks are fairly inexpensive, says Kass. He notes stocks generally trade at around 15 times future earnings, and even higher in periods of tame inflation and low interest rates, as we're currently experiencing.

It may not be a V-shaped rally like that of 2009, but Kass says we've just started building a base, which could lead to a fundamentally stronger and longer-lasting rally in the future.

[via bdparts]

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