is this the bottom?

With stocks down sharply from their bull market peaks, Forbes compiled a group of four prominent analysts and asked them to share their viewpoints on whether the markets had truly reached bottom. Here's what those experts had to say:

"Stocks are down, expectations are down, valuations are down, fear is up and the money supply growth has already started to take off along with the Fed cuts. Those are all positives for the market. The significant volume of selling, or panic selling, over the last few months is commensurate with a bottom."

-- Stuart T. Freeman, A.G. Edwards

"We're in a transitional area, but the trend looks like we're at or near the bottom. We're probably going to move up from here, but the question is how quickly."

-- Holly Gustafson, Legg Mason

"We should see a sustainable upturn from here."

-- Joseph Kalinowski, Thomson Financial/IBES

"In March a bottom occurred."

-- Daniel Peris, Argus Research

Will the experts' predictions prove correct? I wouldn't bet on it.

You see, those quotes were taken from early May. May 2001, that is.

After an extended bull rally, the S&P 500 dropped sharply in late 2000, characterized by sudden price swings and sharp volatility. In the spring of 2001, the market temporarily rebounded, and Forbes' experts all agreed: This was the bottom.

They were wrong.

Over the next four months, the S&P 500 fell 24%. It rebounded briefly, then dropped another 30%.

They weren't just wrong -- they were spectacularly wrong.