Wednesday, November 28, 2007

bear and bull cycles

Since 1950, there have been eight declines greater than 20% in the S&P 500. At their worst, the S&P 500 declines since 1950 have twice shrunk the market value of the index by nearly half. The grueling 21-month bear market that began in 1973 cut the index by more than 48% before the beginning of next bull market.

Fortunately, bear markets are only half of the cycle, and a much smaller half at that. The bull phases average over four times the length of the bear phases. And the average gain of 165.7% is a hefty reward for enduring the 33.2% average decline during the bear campaigns.

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