Monday, August 20, 2007

How good is Jim Cramer?

[3/15/09] Cramer vs. Stewart

[3/12/09] The Daily Show vs. Jim Cramer

[2/8/09] Cramer's recommendations underperform the market by most measures. From May to December of last year, for example, the market lost about 30%. Heeding Cramer's Buys and Sells would have added another five percentage points to that loss, according to our latest tally.

To his credit, Cramer's Sells "made money" by outperforming the market on the downside by as much as five percentage points (depending on the holding period and benchmark). His Buys, however, lost up to 10 percentage points more than the market.

Our research reveals that the stocks Cramer picks as Buys have been rising versus the market for several days in advance of his show, while his Sells have been falling. This doesn't prove there is a leak in the tight security surrounding CNBC's show. It could merely mean that Cramer and his staff are heavy-footed in their research. Or it could mean that his stocks are primarily momentum plays. That is the network's explanation. "Jim likes to recommend 'what is working'," said CNBC communications vice president Brian Steel in a written response Friday. "So it is no surprise there would be movement in these stocks prior to Jim mentioning them."

In any event, these pre-show moves are the probable cause of Cramer's underperformance. As the stocks revert to the market's trend in the weeks after the show, Cramer's followers get hurt.

[10/31/08] Like him or hate him, Jim Cramer gets people's attention. And whether he gets his picks right or wrong, he's done at least one thing that deserves the highest praise. Every night on Cramer's Mad Money program, you'll hear about how Cramer owns some of the stocks he talks about in his charitable trust. He owns a mixed bag of stocks, some up and some down. But regardless of how those picks have done, Cramer deserves the most credit for making the donation to charity in the first place.

[5/14/08] While looking through AOL videos, I happened to put in a search for Jim Cramer and came up with Wizetrade vs. Jim Cramer which is a technical analysis of Jim Cramer's picks of the day (hint: sort by most recent)

[3/7/08] Tracking the performance of Jim Cramer’s Jan 2007 stock picks

[2/27/08] Five mistakes amateurs make

[8/20/07] Does it pay to short Cramer?

[8/9/07] Cramer flips out [via tairbear00@chucks_angels]

[5/31/07] Who does Jim Cramer think he is?

[3/16/07] Is Jim Cramer a rule breaker?

[2/15/07] Track Cramer's top picks at TopStockGuru

[1/15/07] Jim Cramer is a Rule Breaker

[12/5/06] Jim Cramer's 10 Lessons From Success: Some Buy and Sell Rules (excerpted from Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich)
  1. Follow The Street's Lead
  2. How to be Contrarian
  3. Wall Street's Often Wrong
  4. Don't turn your nose up
  5. Be Politically Savvy
  6. Learn momentum's rhythm
  7. The Best Way to Use tips
  8. A selling formula
  9. Look out for downturns
  10. Beware multiple contraction
Jim Cramer's 10 rules from New Mistakes, New Rules: Ten Lessons From My Bad Calls (excerpted from Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich)
  1. Ride the business cycle
  2. Know the markets
  3. Do the right homework
  4. LatAm's always a trade
  5. Admit it when it's too hard
Bonus: Hold Your Own Lightning Round

[8/3/07] Cramer's Soundboard!

[12/2/06] Booyah Breakdown: Cramerisms

[11/16/06] Buffett watches "Cramer" [from rrlbva@chucks_angels]

[10/23/06] Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine profiles Cramer

[8/28/06] A review of 'Confessions of a Street Addict'

[8/11/06] Is the market mad?

[5/5/06] CramerWatch.org announces the re-launch of the first, and only, free website that evaluates the stock picks and recommendations of Wall Street guru Jim Cramer, star of MSNBC’s nightly 'Mad Money with Jim Cramer.'

The goal of CramerWatch.org is to impartially review if Cramer is good for investors. The website collects each of Mr. Cramer’s “lightning round” recommendations and tracks the performance of each stock recommendation. The performance of the stock is also compared to the performance of the overall market over 30 days.

The recommendation is also compared to the recommendations of Leonard ‘The Wonder Monkey’ CramerWatch.org’s resident stock picker. Leonard recommends buying or selling stocks that appear on Mr. Cramer’s lightening round by simply flipping a coin. CramerWatch.org shows that randomly buying or selling those picks will actually make the investor more money than following all of Mr. Cramer’s recommendations.

* * *

[4/21/06] Mark Skousen predicts the demise of Jim Cramer

[4/5/06] Cramer vs. the benchmarks

[1/19/06] Munnariz reiterates

[1/13/06] TMFBreakerRick's take on Cramer

[12/21/05] This guy has been unimpressed by Cramer's Actions Alert Plus. His beef seems to be that the portfolio doesn't own several stocks that he says to buy on his show. In particular: GOOG, WFMI, AMGN, DNA. I think a reason might be that Cramer is unable to buy stocks for 7 days after he mentions it on his show (or something like that). That likely handcuffs the Actions Alert portfolio to no end. He does say though the show is worth listening to for free and that Cramer has made him money in the past.

[10/24/05] Cramer makes the cover of BusinessWeek

[10/17/05] Krakower was offering Cramer something all the money in the world can't buy. She would make Jim Cramer a rock star.

[9/1/05] CNBC's Raging Bull

[8/8/05] San Francisco Chronicle story (Cramer replied on 8/1 that he has already sold some of those picks that have gone nowhere - he doesn't buy and hold, he buys and homework]

[8/1/05] My answer is he's real good at entertainment. But how good is he at picking stocks?

According to this study, he's right about 50% of the time. (That statistic alone is not necessarily bad. If you let your winners run and cut your losses, you can come out far ahead. I still don't know the actual performance of Cramer's portfolio.)

Here's an earlier New York Post article.

Links:

Mad Money Recaps [3/25/07]

Mad Money (from wikipedia)

Mad Money Recaps

Jim Cramer Mad Money Forum

BOO-YAH BOY AUDIT! [9/15/05]

RealMoney Radio

New York Metro archive

Mad Money Machine, a blog by Paul Douglas Boyer [3/29/06]



[4/19/05] Jim Cramer's 25 Rules for Investing

[9/5/05] Cramer School

No comments: