Saturday, December 14, 2024

Here we go again (?)

Stocks have been on fire this year.

YTD, the S&P 500 is up 26.9%.

What's interesting is that the S&P is on pace to close up 20% or higher for the second year in a row. (2023 was up 24.2%.)

That's a feat rarely seen in the past.

I have seen others state the same. But they do so as a cautionary tale and tie it to the dot-com bubble.

That's all well and fine.

But I see it a bit differently.

The dot-com bubble 'burst' in 2000 when the S&P dropped by -10.1% for the year. (That was also Y2K, which caused plenty of panic leading up to it, but came and went pretty much without a hiccup.)

The point is, the dot-com bubble was preceded by the dot-com (technology) boom.

In 1995 the S&P was up 34.1%.
In 1996 it was up 20.3%.

That was the first time it was up 20% or more for two years in a row since 1954-55.

So, what happened in 1997? It was up another 31.0%.
1998? Up another 26.7%.
And in 1999, it was up 19.5%.

A spectacular rally that lasted 5 long, glorious years.

Yes, the dot-com bubble arrived in 2000. But not before people got rich over the preceding 5 years with a 220% increase in the index, while plenty of individual stocks were up several hundred percent to several thousand percent.

And I'm here to say that I believe we could possibly see the same thing again now. Maybe 5 years or more of boom times – for similar reasons, and some unique to the present day.

***

Possibly.

-- Kevin Matras, Weekend Wisdom, 12/13/24

Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Art Cashin

Art Cashin, UBS’ director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange and a man The Washington Post called “Wall Street’s version of Walter Cronkite,” has died. He was 83 and had been a regular on CNBC for more than 25 years.

In the intensely competitive and often vicious world of stock market commentary, Cashin was that rarest of creatures: a man respected by all, bulls and bears, liberals and conservatives alike. He seemed to have almost no enemies.

He was a great drinker and raconteur, a teller of stories.

For decades, he assembled a group of like-minded friends every day after trading halted, first at the bar at the NYSE luncheon club, then across the street at Bobby Van’s Steakhouse, where the group came to be known as the “Friends of Fermentation.” His drink was Dewar’s, always on the rocks.

Cashin’s success was attributable to a combination of charm, wit, intelligence, and a stubborn insistence on refusing to adopt many of the conveniences of the modern world. He was a link to an NYSE tradition. Every year, on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, he led the singing of the 1905 song “Wait ’Till the Sun Shines, Nellie.”

Cashin refused to use credit cards and paid for everything, particularly his voluminous bar bills, with cash, saying he cherished his anonymity. He never learned to use a computer — his notes were hand-written and then sent to his assistant. For years, he used an obsolete flip phone that he rarely answered.

His desk was piled high with papers he had accumulated over the decades. At times, it resembled a recycling facility.

Cashin’s suits were usually rumpled and his ties were always obsolete.

However, neither his appearance nor his attitude was haphazard. They were part of a persona that was carefully constructed over more than 50 years on Wall Street.

Arthur D. Cashin Jr. was born in Jersey City, New Jersey, in 1941. His parents were superintendents of an apartment building. His business career began in 1959 at Thomson McKinnon, a brokerage firm, when he was 17 and still in high school. Cashin had been obliged to join the workforce when his father died unexpectedly that year.

In 1964, at age 23, he became a member of the NYSE and a partner of P.R. Herzig & Co.

At that time, the vast majority of all trading took place on the NYSE floor. Cashin’s early memories revolve around the noise of thousands of brokers shouting at each other. He claimed to be able to tell if the market was moving up or down by the pitch of the screaming, because sellers sounded panicky. “And so if the pitch of the noise was high, I would know the sellers were headed my way. Or if it was a rumble, I would know that it was probably buyers coming,” he said in a 2018 interview.

In the mid-1970s, disgusted by the corruption in his hometown of Jersey City, Cashin ran for mayor. “I think I ran 12th in a field of five,” he said. “But once they discovered I was honest, there wasn’t much chance I was going to get elected.”

He returned to Wall Street. In 1980, he joined PaineWebber and managed its floor operation, continuing to do so after PaineWebber was bought by UBS in 2000.

Then came 2001.

Cashin would often recall what it was like to escape from Ground Zero on Sept. 11, 2001, after terrorists crashed two jetliners into the World Trade Center towers, killing more than 2,600 people in the heart of the nation’s financial center.

“Many of us got out that Tuesday walking through streets onto which ash, smoke and business envelopes fell snow-like, blocking both your view and your breathing,” he wrote in a commentary 13 days later. “Yet when a stranger was met, they were invited to join the convoy and offered a spare wet cloth (carried in pockets) through which to breathe as they walked. When we reached the East River (Brooklyn side of Manhattan), there was a volunteer group of tugboats, fishing boats and mini-ferries that looked like the evacuation of Dunkirk. No charge. No money. Just — “May I help you!” No one got anyone’s name. No thank you cards will be sent. But Americans — even New York Americans — who freely give to strangers but argue with neighbors were suddenly one group. In the days since, as we wander via new strange ways back to Wall Street, we all internalize the survivor’s quandary. We are lucky to be alive — but why us.”

After the Sept. 11 attacks, Cashin chaired the NYSE “Fallen Heroes Fund,” which provided millions of dollars to the families of first responders killed in the line of duty.

Though he was a respected market historian, he was most renowned as a storyteller for the stock market. He was a meticulous observer of fundamental and technical trading patterns but never let data get in the way of explaining the market in a folksy manner that made it accessible to even casual observers. He often spoke of Wall Street as a community of people with many different opinions. In his world, the bulls and bears would fight it out every day, as if it were all a John Wayne Western: “The bulls are circling the wagons, trying to defend the highs” was a common refrain.

His daily market commentary, Cashin’s Comments, was distributed to clients continuously for more than 40 years and was widely read on Wall Street. It invariably began with an analysis of an important event that occurred on that date (“On this date in 1918, the worldwide flu epidemic went into high gear in the U.S.”), and after a brief history lesson tied that event to the day’s market events (“Pre-opening Wednesday morning, U.S. stock futures looked like they might be coming down with the flu. Several earnings reports were less than glowing and some of the outlooks were cloudy”).

He was a keen observer of human behavior, a behavioral psychologist long before the word was coined. He had seen his fellow humans panic time after time, and had seen the effects of succumbing to the initial desire to sell immediately without thinking. “It tells me that people have a tendency to overreact — and to not think things through carefully,” he said. “And you break up, again, into two sets of people, those who look with some suspicion at events, and others who say, ‘Oh, I’ve got to react to that.’ Those who react immediately rarely do well. Those who are somewhat suspect, they do much better.”

He had two great loves in his life: his family and the New York Stock Exchange. In the age of computerized trading, the fabled NYSE trading floor still survives, though in greatly diminished form. When it was closed during the Covid pandemic, he said he was “disappointed ... but it was understandable.”

Cashin was philosophical when asked about the rise of electronic trading, which has slowly but surely eroded the influence of that floor. “I miss those magnificent days when your spirit hung on the fact that you were good for your word or you’re outta here,” he once said at Bobby Van’s, but admitted that electronic trading had improved the speed and accuracy of trading, particularly recordkeeping.

Among his many friends, he will perhaps be best remembered for his modesty. He seemed genuinely puzzled about his popularity. “People have an interest in — in Arthur Cashin. I can’t fully understand why,” he said.

And when The Washington Post ran a long profile of his career in 2019, calling him Wall Street’s version of CBS newsman Cronkite, he quipped: “I think I owe an apology to Walter Cronkite.”

In lieu of flowers, the family kindly requests donations be made to the Arthur D. Cashin Jr. Memorial Scholarship at Xavier High School. Contributions may be sent to Xavier High School, 30 West 16th Street, New York, NY 10011.

— CNBC’s Martin Steinberg contributed to this report.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Signs that you're wealthy

It’s easy to feel like you’re behind when your social media feeds are filled with friends taking lavish vacations and buying new cars. But your financial fitness may be better than you realize — even if your wallet isn’t bulging.

Contrary to how it may seem on the surface, being wealthy isn’t always signified by the stuff you have, the size of your home, or the label on your jeans. True financial freedom is harder to spot.

Once you stop focusing on traditional markers of wealth, you begin to see how rich you really are. Here are a few signs that you’re well-off that you’re probably overlooking.

1.  You save money

With 61% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, the ability to save a few bucks each week puts you ahead of most people. 

If you consistently keep more cash in your wallet with every paycheck, you’re increasing the distance between you and disaster, and you're well on your way to financial security.

2.  You invest

Your money can work harder for you than you ever can for it. By investing, you’re putting those dollars to work, gathering interest and appreciation. 

Deciding to start investing in stocks and bonds is how many millionaires achieve their wealth, though some invest in a business (their own or those of others) to generate income as well.

3.  You live comfortably below your means

Ironically, contentment with your income and the ability to live within it is another sign of being well off. This liberates you from the constant need to earn and spend more. 

By spending less than you earn, you’ll ensure your wealth is long-lasting and won’t be threatened by the next economic downturn.

4.  You can buy the things you want, even if you have to save

The one-percenters have an easy time forking out for a boat or a vacation to Paris, no question about it. But if you can afford the same luxuries after a few years of mindful spending and careful saving, you’re still enjoying the same level of luxury, if not as often.

5.  You can afford to retire on time

Sadly, one in five Americans believe they’ll never be able to retire. If you’re on track to retire in your 60s (or retire early), you’re one of the lucky ones. The ability to stop working and enjoy your golden years is truly enviable.

6.  You can consider other things besides money in decision-making

Those with means can consider convenience, sustainability, style, and other factors when making purchases, not just the price. 

It’s odd, but when it’s not all about the money, that’s when you’re in the money. If money isn’t the only driver behind your decisions, you likely have plenty of it.

7.  You spend on things that give you back time

Whether it’s a housecleaner, a landscaper to mow your yard, or even a dishwasher, the fact that you can invest in products and services that aren’t necessities but save you time makes you an affluent person.

Unlike money, no person alive can ever get more than 24 hours in a day. Rich people know that time is a more precious resource than money, and they spend both accordingly.

8.  You’re not being pulled down by debt

Americans paid nearly $164 billion in credit card interest and fees in 2022. 

If you’ve managed to pay off any debts you’ve had, you’re at least richer than the average person. That excludes student loans, car notes, and other debt. Wealthy folks know the value of collecting interest, not paying it.

9.  You invest in yourself

Your library of knowledge is one of the most productive investments you can make, though it doesn’t come cheap. You're certainly well off if you can afford the money and time for good books, courses, seminars, and other learning materials.

10.  Your net worth is increasing

Where you’re going is arguably more important than where you’ve been. If your net worth — the difference between the value of the assets you own and the liabilities you owe — is positive and growing, you’re on the right path.

11.  You’re able to look past the price

If you can buy things with quality and price of ownership in mind (rather than getting the cheapest item that fits the bill because it’s all you can afford), that’s a sign you’re financially well off.

It’s sad and ironic that those with more money tend to get better bargains because they can make larger one-time purchases to get bulk deals or buy quality products that last.

12.  You have peace of mind

Knowing you and your loved ones are covered with life, health, home, and auto insurance in case disaster strikes allows you to sleep better at night. 

Insurance can protect you from a black swan event, wiping out the wealth you’ve worked hard to build.

13.  You have a strong network

Another non-monetary indicator of wealth is in the people around you. If you have a strong network of friends and family to check in on you and help you during hard times, then you are wealthy.

14.  You share time and money with others

Perhaps the most significant sign of wealth is the ability to give it away. Giving money to a church, charity, non-profit, or other worthy cause brings meaning and purpose behind having it in the first place. And since time is money, volunteering your time counts, too.

15.  You partake in activities that have meaning to you

One of life’s most lavish luxuries is spending time on things that bring you joy. 

Whether you step up your travel game, enjoy woodworking, write music, or help at a soup kitchen, having the time and money to pursue things other than money is a subtle sign of affluence.

Bottom line

Saving, investing, giving a little money to charity, and enjoying a few of life’s pleasures are all signs of financial fitness.

Those things aren’t easily detectable via labels and Instagram photos, but they are some of the best things money can buy.

Saturday, March 23, 2024

interest rate cuts and the stock market

We all know that the Fed has reached the end of its hiking cycle and now has interest rate cuts in sight. From a historical perspective, the start of the easing process has been bullish. Going all the way back to 1921 and spanning 24 periods, the DJIA advanced an average of 15% a year following the first cut.

The narrative surrounding interest rate cuts becomes even better when we factor in whether or not the economy was in a recession. When the Fed has avoided recession, stocks have ripped higher, up 24% on average a year later.

In addition, the Fed has made it clear that it plans to cut rates slowly. The S&P 500 widely outperforms in the 1st year of slow easing cycles versus fast ones. Why is that the case? Because in fast easing cycles, it usually means something has gone wrong (such as the start of easing cycles in 2001 and 2007). But in this case, with the economy on sound footing, a slow easing cycle should bode well for stock returns.

Regardless of what you've heard in the financial media, interest rate cuts don't have to doom stocks, particularly when there is no recession and a slow easing cycle.

Election And Seasonal Cycle Stats Point to More Strength Ahead

We're in the 4th year of President Biden's term. Another reason to be bullish is the fact that election years tend to see enhanced gains when we have a new President that's still in his first term. Dating back to 1950, the S&P 500 gains an average of 12.2% under new Presidents, far above the typical election year return of 7.3%.

-- Weekend Wisdom, 3/23/24

Monday, February 12, 2024

Presidential Election Cycle

The stock market has historically performed better in the third year of a presidential cycle. The theory behind this is that politics and its effect on economic policies can cause the stock market to perform better. Investors expect better business conditions, corporate bottom lines and stock prices in the year before a presidential election.

On this page, we study the effect of the presidential cycle and political parties and their effects on stock market performances. The data is from 1928 to 2023, and updated daily.

As shown in the table below, the market indeed performs the best during the third presidential year of a four-year term. The average gain of the third presidential year is 13.96%. The second best year is the fourth presidential year, with an average gain of 7.38% . The worst year is the second presidential year, with an average gain of just 3.33%. On average, the market has gained 7.82% a year since 1928.

Average annual gains in different presidential years and political parties (%) since 1928

         Democrat Republican    Average
Year 1  12.89%   -0.76%    6.63%
Year 2   3.70%    2.89%    3.33%
Year 3  15.42%   12.23%   13.96%
Year 4   9.39%    5.21%    7.38%
Average  10.35%    4.90%    7.82%

The table also shows a much higher average gain when a Democrat is in the White House. On average, a Democratic president sees an average annual return of 10.35%, while a Republican president just sees an average gain of 4.90%. The third year of a Democratic president would see the highest gains, with the annual average of 15.42%. Among the different combinations of political parties and presidential years, the third years with Democratic presidents see the best returns, followed by the third years with a Republican president. The worst years are the first years with a Republican president.

Out of the last 97 years, there were 65 positive years, or 67%. These are the percentages of the years that have seen positive returns. Again the third years stand out with more positive returns. A first year with a Republican president did the worst.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

The Seven Virtues of Great Investors

I started reading Morgan Housel's Psychology of Money because it was recommended by my Kindle.  I can give no higher recommendation than that I am continuing to read it.  I borrowed it on Libby, but it's one of those books that I would actually buy!

Anyway, on the cover is a blurb by Jason Zweig, "one of the best and most original finance books in years".

Zweig is a columnist for the Wall Street Journal and I googled him.  Turns out he has a blog and one of the blog entries is The Seven Virtues of Great Investors.  I'm reading it and it sounds OK to me (but it's not as interesting as Housel's book).

Thursday, January 11, 2024

All Hail Munger

Warren Buffett’s great friend and business partner Charlie Munger recently died a little short of his 100th birthday. Buffett has said that Munger made him a better investor — via advice such as: “Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.” Here are more nuggets credited to Munger:

• On investing: “The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.” And: “Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.”

• On risk: “When any guy offers you a chance to earn lots of money without risk, don’t listen to the rest of his sentence. Follow this, and you’ll save yourself a lot of misery.”

• On succeeding in life: “It’s so simple. You spend less than you earn. Invest shrewdly, and avoid toxic people and toxic activities, and try and keep learning all your life. … And do a lot of deferred gratification because you prefer life that way. And if you do all those things you are almost certain to succeed. And if you don’t, you’re gonna need a lot of luck.”

• On learning: “In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads — and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”

• On thinking: “We all are learning, modifying or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
Search for “Charlie Munger” online, and you’ll find much more Munger wisdom that might make you a better investor — or person.

-- Star Advertiser, 1/1/24