The Stock Clock

Schwab's Jeffrey Mortimer, in a 2004 issue (September or October?) of Schwab Investing Insight, uses the concept of a stock clock to illustrate the market cycle. He believes "we're around 9 o'clock, when the economic recovery is gathering steam as investors climb a wall of worry".

Writing now in the March 2005 issue, Mortimer still maintains we're still around 9 o'clock and are in a bull market that still has another leg to go.

How long do these cycles take. Back to the earlier issue, Mortimer says it take as little as three years or as long as a decade. It's been five years so far since the last top. "It's possible we could stay at 9 o'clock for a long time."

EV/FCF > P/E

Nathan Parmalee says, like a batting average, the p/e ratio is a limited statistic. He prefers onbase percentages and enterprise value-to-free cash flow, as well as discounted cash flow analysis

Spotting earnings disappointments and surprises

How to Spot Potential Earnings Disappointments: There is no sure
fire way to spot stocks that will fail during earnings season.
However, there are ways to improve your odds. In general, stocks
that have disappointed in past quarters are more likely to
disappoint in future quarters. Plus stocks that have seen lower
expectations leading up to their announcement date also tend to
fall short of the mark more often. The clues to both of these
items can be found on the Estimates research report. Here is
the link to see that page for IBM and you can go from there to
research any of your stocks http://at.zacks.com/?id=1504.

How to Spot Potential Earnings Surprises: This is the inverse
story from above. Those stocks that have reported positive
surprises in the past are more likely to do so in the future. In
addition, earnings estimate increases leading into earnings
season is a very good indication as well. However, the simplest
way to find these winners is by following the Zacks Rank which
concentrates on these same variables. You can either look at the
full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=1551. Or screen for Zacks #1 Ranked stocks with the highest past earnings surprises through our
custom screener at http://at.zacks.com/?id=1535.

Bezos speaks

In Amazon's 2004 annual report, Jeff Bezos presents an example of how looking at earnings (vs. free cash flow) can be dangerously misleading.

The example is admittedly contrived, but maybe this Bezos guy might know what he's doing.

Mauldin looks into the future

Mauldin talks about

The Innovation Cycle

Secular Bull and Secular Bear Markets

Human Psychology

What Will Change

Demography

http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo042205

Buying when they say sell

As has been the case in past years, stocks with large proportions of "sell" recommendations from Wall Street analysts have lately performed better than those with plenty of "buy" or "hold" ratings and no sell ratings at all.